34409 W 51st St S · Mannford, OK 74044

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1981 2.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home set on nearly 2.5 peaceful acres, offering space, privacy, and plenty of versatility. In addition to the main home, the property features a separate 2-car garage with finished space above that works beautifully as a home office, hobby room, studio, or guest retreat, complete with its own full bath and stacked washer/dryer. The home includes a refrigerator, stove, standalone microwave, two washing machines, and a dryer. Outside, you’ll enjoy the beauty and character of mature acorn, pecan, and black walnut trees, along with a classic clothesline for fresh-air drying and a deck to relax on to enjoy it all. A shed is also included with the property and for

Key facts

• Mature pecan trees
• Finished space above
• Full bath

Tags

• SEPARATE 2 CAR GARAGE
• FINISHED SPACE ABOVE
• FULL BATH
• STACKED WASHER DRYER
• MATURE ACORN TREES
• MATURE PECAN TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-758/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in Mannford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#53 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mannford (town): math 25% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #125 of 270 in OK (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Creek County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,152 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $77,595
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $231,515
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74044

• Home prices YoY: 10.7%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $442/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,121

Max offer price $138,844

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-21	+0% $-63	+5% $-106	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-104	+0% $-63	+5% $-22	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $12	-0.5pp $-25	base $-63	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $442 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,350 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$908/yr (+$76/mo · 205.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$442
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,000
• − Management: −$1,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,459
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$830
• After-tax cash flow: $72/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mannford
• NCES district ID: 4018840
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $47,044
• Composite: 20.55/100
• National rank: #8561
• State rank: #125 of 270 in OK

Livability — Mannford

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #8759

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,255

Population outlook (Creek County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 72,706 people
• By 2030: 73,032 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 72,788 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 71,558 · -1.6%
• By 2075: 69,248 · -4.8%
• By 2100: 62,722 · -13.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Native American 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Creek

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.2% · R 77.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -41.6pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+54.8 2016: R+54.5 2012: R+45.4 2008: R+41.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.24%
• Current HPI: 272.61
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-20 Listed $150,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $442 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.