650 W Diamondbird Loop · Pine Ridge, FL 34442

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Condo public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1990 $323/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Forest Ridge Villas in a Maintenance Free Community. SELLER Financing Available to Qualified Buyer. The HOA includes cable, internet and lawn Service. The community has a pool and clubhouse that hosts many community wide activities. The community is within walking distance to the Shoppes at Black Diamond and the Tampa General Hospital that is coming soon. The Shoppes at Black Diamond are a few miles away. Jump on the Suncoast Parkway that is a great way to get to the airport and Tampa. The roof is newer and the AC was installed in 2016. The laundry room is large and located inside the living area. Enjoy your large Screened in lanai that looks out to the backyard. Make this one

Key facts

• Newer roof
• $323 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• LARGE SCREENED IN LANAI
• NEWER ROOF
• HVAC INSTALLED IN 2016

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $323; HOA includes cable TV and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space; Driveway parking; Garage door opener; Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential condominium; Single-story (one level); North-facing
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; Clubhouse; Paved road access; Rolling slope / hilly topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven / Range; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric, Heat Pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dryer, Dishwasher, Electric Oven, Disposal, Oven, Range, Refrigerator, Washer; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($22/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#565 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forest Ridge Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 708 students, 67% FRL); Lecanto Middle School (math 49% / reading 49%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 809 students, 55% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 448 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $180k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-28,914
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,542
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 448
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $617/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$323
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,763

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $53	+0% $2	+5% $-49	+10% $-100
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-68	+0% $2	+5% $72	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $48	base $2	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
703 W Sunbird Path Hernando, FL	2.0	2.0	1298	$1,700	$1.31	23d	1	0.03mi
3263 N Maidencane Dr Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	1.0	1380	$1,350	$0.98	23d	1	0.46mi
144 W Sugarmaple Ln Beverly Hills, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	23d	1	0.54mi
229 W Casurina Pl Beverly Hills, FL	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,399	$0.87	23d	1	0.56mi
877 W Silver Meadow Loop Hernando, FL	3.0	2.0	1637	$2,500	$1.53	23d	1	0.71mi
3660 N Laurelwood Loop Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	2.5	1543	$1,800	$1.17	23d	1	0.74mi
95 S Desoto St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,435	$1.25	23d	1	0.74mi
3442 N Tamarisk Ave Unit NA Beverly Hills, FL	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	23d	1	0.75mi
1240 W Diamond Shore Loop Hernando, FL	2.0	2.0	1770	$2,900	$1.64	23d	1	0.89mi
1281 W Diamond Shore Loop Hernando, FL	2.0	2.0	1686	$3,000	$1.78	23d	1	0.92mi
95 S Fillmore St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,300	$1.23	23d	1	0.97mi
42 Roosevelt Blvd Unit 1 Beverly Hills, FL	3.0	1.5	1612	$1,449	$0.90	23d	1	1.01mi
17 N Davis St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	1.0	1108	$1,000	$0.90	23d	1	1.06mi
209 S Tyler St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	2.0	1604	$1,500	$0.94	23d	1	1.06mi
23 N Lee St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	1.0	1416	$1,350	$0.95	23d	1	1.13mi
45 S Jackson St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	1.0	1108	$1,275	$1.15	23d	1	1.15mi
41 S Monroe St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	1.0	932	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	1.21mi
1882 W Angelica Loop Lecanto, FL	3.0	2.0	1706	$1,900	$1.11	23d	1	1.21mi
1610 W Spring Meadow Loop Lecanto, FL	2.0	2.5	1359	$2,700	$1.99	23d	1	1.24mi
1876 W Shanelle Path Lecanto, FL	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,100	$1.25	23d	1	1.24mi
2280 N Hardee Pt Hernando, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,700	$1.52	23d	1	1.26mi
1984 W Marsten Ct Lecanto, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$2,000	$1.08	23d	1	1.29mi
1933 W Shanelle Path Lecanto, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,300	$1.36	23d	1	1.29mi
1658 W Spring Meadow Loop Lecanto, FL	2.0	2.5	1359	$1,775	$1.31	23d	1	1.30mi
31 S Barbour St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	1.0	1027	$1,525	$1.48	23d	1	1.39mi
1559 N Killebrew Pt Unit NA Hernando, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,900	$1.64	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $323 · $3,876/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablepool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $179,900 Active
19. 2005-10-11
    soldstatus $118,000
20. 2005-07-05
    soldstatus $102,000
21. 1995-06-15
    soldstatus $57,000
22. 1995-06-01
    soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $617 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$877/yr (+$73/mo · 142.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$617
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − HOA: −$3,876
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$698
• After-tax cash flow: $720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pine Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #565
• US rank: #10798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 18,514
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+215.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $179,900 RACC
• 2005-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $617 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.