203 Keerl St · Joice, IA 50446

$45,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1920 9,583 sqft lot $36/sqft · 65% below area ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer-Upper with Great Bones in Joice — Ready for Your Interior Refresh! This solid two-story home in Joice offers a strong foundation and plenty of potential. Exterior features include aluminum siding, updated windows, a newer roof, and a new HVAC system. A convenient one-car detached garage adds storage and off-street parking. Inside, the interiors are ready for your design ideas. The main level hosts a 3-season enclosed porch, a functional kitchen, a large living room, and a full laundry room/office. The upper level contains three bedrooms and a full bath. The home needs an interior overhaul, but with a little sweat equity you can transform this canvas into a charming, affordable home in a small town. This home is also included in the WCDA Grants for any school aged kid(s) to be gifted funds for the first two years of college!

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Updated windows
• Newer roof

Tags

• ALUMINUM SIDING
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• NEWER ROOF
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• 3-SEASON ENCLOSED PORCH
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($948 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#752 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools D-.
• Lake Mills Community School District (rural): math 68% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #148 of 289 in IA (top 51%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $40,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.45%
• DSCR: 2.98
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,000
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -65.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Franke St St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-4%)	8mo	$142,999	$119	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $46,931
• Equity at exit: $32,774

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.05×
• Total profit: $114,065
• Equity at exit: $63,753

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50446

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $948 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $328/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $357

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $492	-5% $479	+0% $467	+5% $454	+10% $441
Rent	-10% $392	-5% $429	+0% $467	+5% $504	+10% $542
Rate	-1.0pp $489	-0.5pp $478	base $467	+0.5pp $455	+1.0pp $443

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (847 chars)

   Fixer-Upper with Great Bones in Joice — Ready for Your Interior Refresh! This solid two-story home in Joice offers a strong foundation and plenty of potential. Exterior features include aluminum siding, updated windows, a newer roof, and a new HVAC system. A convenient one-car detached garage adds storage and off-street parking. Inside, the interiors are ready for your design ideas. The main level hosts a 3-season enclosed porch, a functional kitchen, a large living room, and a full laundry room/office. The upper level contains three bedrooms and a full bath. The home needs an interior overhaul, but with a little sweat equity you can transform this canvas into a charming, affordable home in a small town. This home is also included in the WCDA Grants for any school aged kid(s) to be gifted funds for the first two years of college!

2. 2026-04-17
   price $45,000 847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (847 chars)

   Fixer-Upper with Great Bones in Joice — Ready for Your Interior Refresh! This solid two-story home in Joice offers a strong foundation and plenty of potential. Exterior features include aluminum siding, updated windows, a newer roof, and a new HVAC system. A convenient one-car detached garage adds storage and off-street parking. Inside, the interiors are ready for your design ideas. The main level hosts a 3-season enclosed porch, a functional kitchen, a large living room, and a full laundry room/office. The upper level contains three bedrooms and a full bath. The home needs an interior overhaul, but with a little sweat equity you can transform this canvas into a charming, affordable home in a small town. This home is also included in the WCDA Grants for any school aged kid(s) to be gifted funds for the first two years of college!

3. 2026-04-13
   status Active 847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (847 chars)

   Fixer-Upper with Great Bones in Joice — Ready for Your Interior Refresh! This solid two-story home in Joice offers a strong foundation and plenty of potential. Exterior features include aluminum siding, updated windows, a newer roof, and a new HVAC system. A convenient one-car detached garage adds storage and off-street parking. Inside, the interiors are ready for your design ideas. The main level hosts a 3-season enclosed porch, a functional kitchen, a large living room, and a full laundry room/office. The upper level contains three bedrooms and a full bath. The home needs an interior overhaul, but with a little sweat equity you can transform this canvas into a charming, affordable home in a small town. This home is also included in the WCDA Grants for any school aged kid(s) to be gifted funds for the first two years of college!

4. 2026-01-09
   status Pending 847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (847 chars)

   Fixer-Upper with Great Bones in Joice — Ready for Your Interior Refresh! This solid two-story home in Joice offers a strong foundation and plenty of potential. Exterior features include aluminum siding, updated windows, a newer roof, and a new HVAC system. A convenient one-car detached garage adds storage and off-street parking. Inside, the interiors are ready for your design ideas. The main level hosts a 3-season enclosed porch, a functional kitchen, a large living room, and a full laundry room/office. The upper level contains three bedrooms and a full bath. The home needs an interior overhaul, but with a little sweat equity you can transform this canvas into a charming, affordable home in a small town. This home is also included in the WCDA Grants for any school aged kid(s) to be gifted funds for the first two years of college!

5. 2026-01-08
   historical Active Under Contract 847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (847 chars)

   Fixer-Upper with Great Bones in Joice — Ready for Your Interior Refresh! This solid two-story home in Joice offers a strong foundation and plenty of potential. Exterior features include aluminum siding, updated windows, a newer roof, and a new HVAC system. A convenient one-car detached garage adds storage and off-street parking. Inside, the interiors are ready for your design ideas. The main level hosts a 3-season enclosed porch, a functional kitchen, a large living room, and a full laundry room/office. The upper level contains three bedrooms and a full bath. The home needs an interior overhaul, but with a little sweat equity you can transform this canvas into a charming, affordable home in a small town. This home is also included in the WCDA Grants for any school aged kid(s) to be gifted funds for the first two years of college!

6. 2025-10-22
   listed $50,000 Active 847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (847 chars)

   Fixer-Upper with Great Bones in Joice — Ready for Your Interior Refresh! This solid two-story home in Joice offers a strong foundation and plenty of potential. Exterior features include aluminum siding, updated windows, a newer roof, and a new HVAC system. A convenient one-car detached garage adds storage and off-street parking. Inside, the interiors are ready for your design ideas. The main level hosts a 3-season enclosed porch, a functional kitchen, a large living room, and a full laundry room/office. The upper level contains three bedrooms and a full bath. The home needs an interior overhaul, but with a little sweat equity you can transform this canvas into a charming, affordable home in a small town. This home is also included in the WCDA Grants for any school aged kid(s) to be gifted funds for the first two years of college!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $328 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $517 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$189/yr (+$16/mo · 57.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$328
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$910
• − Management: −$910
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $5,171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,241
• After-tax cash flow: $4,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Mills Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1916110
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,268
• Composite: 59.19/100
• National rank: #945
• State rank: #148 of 289 in IA

Livability — Joice

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #17322

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Joice, IA
• Population (ZIP): 518

Population outlook (Worth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,751 people
• By 2030: 7,775 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 7,722 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 7,645 · -1.4%
• By 2075: 7,785 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 7,554 · -2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 28% Scottish 9% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Worth

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.2% · R 63.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+21.8 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.53%
• Current HPI: 158.6483
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — IAR
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $45,000 IAR
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — IAR
• 2026-01-09 Pending — IAR
• 2026-01-08 Contingent — IAR
• 2025-10-22 Listed $50,000 IAR

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $328 · -18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.