1609 Illini Dr · New Lenox, IL 60451

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Other · 26 Days on market

0.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sold as-is.

Key facts

• Ranch-style home
• Large kitchen
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• RANCH-STYLE HOME
• LARGE KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• SIZABLE LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in unincorporated New Lenox Township
• HOA & community: No master association fees required

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces total; Attached garage (garage owned); Asphalt and gravel driveway/parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Split-level / tri-level design; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick and other exterior materials; Home age approximately 41–50 years
• Exterior features: Lot between 0.25 and 0.49 acre; Lot dimensions recorded

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (approx. 16 x 10)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (Master bedroom on second level; three additional bedrooms on second level — two approx. 13 x 10, one approx. 13 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on lower level (approx. 9 x 7)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 1.7% in New Lenox — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#127 in IL, #2,348 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Lincoln Way Chsd 210 (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #60 of 620 in IL (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spencer Pointe (math 62% / reading 42%, grade C-, #148 of 2,056 statewide, top 8%, 492 students, 0% FRL); Alex M Martino Jr High School (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #101 of 665 statewide, top 16%, 574 students, 0% FRL); Lincoln-Way Central High School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D-, #53 of 693 statewide, top 8%, 1,962 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.16%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $51,608
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $154,064
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60451

• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$715 /mo · $8,580/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $1,313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,337

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,427	-5% $1,370	+0% $1,313	+5% $1,257	+10% $1,200
Rent	-10% $997	-5% $1,155	+0% $1,313	+5% $1,471	+10% $1,629
Rate	-1.0pp $1,414	-0.5pp $1,364	base $1,313	+0.5pp $1,262	+1.0pp $1,209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1978 Stapleton Rd New Lenox, IL	4.0	2.5	2630	$4,000	$1.52	0d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $199,900 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-05-20
   status Active
3. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-18
   listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,580 · $715/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,580 · $715/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$8,580
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,840
• − Management: −$3,840
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $13,728
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,295
• After-tax cash flow: $12,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Way Chsd 210
• NCES district ID: 1723070
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $86,879
• Composite: 43.4/100
• National rank: #3019
• State rank: #60 of 620 in IL

Livability — New Lenox

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #2348

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 37,481
• Population (ZIP): 37,481

Population outlook (Will County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 705,368 people
• By 2030: 708,154 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 702,692 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 680,249 · -3.6%
• By 2075: 611,990 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 516,215 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Iranian 4% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Will

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 48.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.3 2016: D+5.7 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.55%
• Current HPI: 239.0926
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listed $199,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $8,580 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.