2300 S Baldwin Rd · Auburn Hills, MI 48360

$259,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,329 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1951 10,019 sqft lot Est $386k · 33% under · waterfront $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED TO SELL FOR THIS GREAT LAKE FRONT OPPORTUNITY!!! OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH 2 LARGE BEDROOMS THAT COULD EASILY BE CONVERTED BACK TO 3 BEDSROOMS. ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED (STOVE, REFRIGERATOR, WASHER & DRYER). NEWER GAS HOT WATER BOILER FOR EVEN RADIANT HEAT. NEWER HOT WATER HEATER. BASEMENT HAS BEEN WATERPROOFED. OPEN SLATE TO FINISH LOWER LEVEL AS YOU WANT. EASY TO SHOW & PRICED TO SELL!!!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1951
• Listed 89 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-197/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Auburn Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#151 in MI, #3,766 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Paint Creek Elementary School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #160 of 1,397 statewide, top 13%, 532 students, 23% FRL); Waldon Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #90 of 493 statewide, top 19%, 547 students, 26% FRL); Lake Orion Community High School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #46 of 713 statewide, top 7%, 2,174 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,858 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $385,742
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3490 Mahopac Dr	0.23mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,437 (+8%)	23mo	$293,000	$204	50
1140 S Baldwin Rd	1.11mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,370 (+3%)	12mo	$325,000	$237	42
2512 Flintridge St	1.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,225 (-8%)	11mo	$260,600	$213	38
2489 PETERS St	1.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,210 (-9%)	12mo	$260,000	$215	35
2489 Peters St	1.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,210 (-9%)	12mo	$260,000	$215	35
3423 Blasser Dr	1.26mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,451 (+9%)	14mo	$310,000	$214	31
3140 W Clarkston Rd	1.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+5%)	20mo	$345,000	$246	30
2640 W Clarkston Rd	1.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,179 (-11%)	19mo	$254,000	$215	25
3400 Chalice Rd	1.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,525 (+15%)	13mo	$190,000	$125	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-43,017
• Equity at exit: $38,692

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-38,484
• Equity at exit: $22,437

Cash invested: $72,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48360

• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,361
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,643/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,359

Max offer price $256,601

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $57	+0% $-16	+5% $-90	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-109	+0% $-16	+5% $76	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $50	base $-16	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,875
• Closing costs: $7,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 21 events

1. 2024-12-17
   status Pending
2. 2024-07-24
   soldstatus $247,500
3. 2024-06-07
   status Pending 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   REDUCED TO SELL FOR THIS GREAT LAKE FRONT OPPORTUNITY!!! OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH 2 LARGE BEDROOMS THAT COULD EASILY BE CONVERTED BACK TO 3 BEDSROOMS. ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED (STOVE, REFRIGERATOR, WASHER & DRYER). NEWER GAS HOT WATER BOILER FOR EVEN RADIANT HEAT. NEWER HOT WATER HEATER. BASEMENT HAS BEEN WATERPROOFED. OPEN SLATE TO FINISH LOWER LEVEL AS YOU WANT. EASY TO SHOW & PRICED TO SELL!!!

4. 2024-06-07
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   REDUCED TO SELL FOR THIS GREAT LAKE FRONT OPPORTUNITY!!! OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH 2 LARGE BEDROOMS THAT COULD EASILY BE CONVERTED BACK TO 3 BEDSROOMS. ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED (STOVE, REFRIGERATOR, WASHER & DRYER). NEWER GAS HOT WATER BOILER FOR EVEN RADIANT HEAT. NEWER HOT WATER HEATER. BASEMENT HAS BEEN WATERPROOFED. OPEN SLATE TO FINISH LOWER LEVEL AS YOU WANT. EASY TO SHOW & PRICED TO SELL!!!

5. 2024-05-12
   price $259,500 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   REDUCED TO SELL FOR THIS GREAT LAKE FRONT OPPORTUNITY!!! OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH 2 LARGE BEDROOMS THAT COULD EASILY BE CONVERTED BACK TO 3 BEDSROOMS. ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED (STOVE, REFRIGERATOR, WASHER & DRYER). NEWER GAS HOT WATER BOILER FOR EVEN RADIANT HEAT. NEWER HOT WATER HEATER. BASEMENT HAS BEEN WATERPROOFED. OPEN SLATE TO FINISH LOWER LEVEL AS YOU WANT. EASY TO SHOW & PRICED TO SELL!!!

6. 2024-05-12
   price $259,500

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   REDUCED TO SELL FOR THIS GREAT LAKE FRONT OPPORTUNITY!!! OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH 2 LARGE BEDROOMS THAT COULD EASILY BE CONVERTED BACK TO 3 BEDSROOMS. ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED (STOVE, REFRIGERATOR, WASHER & DRYER). NEWER GAS HOT WATER BOILER FOR EVEN RADIANT HEAT. NEWER HOT WATER HEATER. BASEMENT HAS BEEN WATERPROOFED. OPEN SLATE TO FINISH LOWER LEVEL AS YOU WANT. EASY TO SHOW & PRICED TO SELL!!!

7. 2024-03-30
   price $272,900 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   REDUCED TO SELL FOR THIS GREAT LAKE FRONT OPPORTUNITY!!! OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH 2 LARGE BEDROOMS THAT COULD EASILY BE CONVERTED BACK TO 3 BEDSROOMS. ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED (STOVE, REFRIGERATOR, WASHER & DRYER). NEWER GAS HOT WATER BOILER FOR EVEN RADIANT HEAT. NEWER HOT WATER HEATER. BASEMENT HAS BEEN WATERPROOFED. OPEN SLATE TO FINISH LOWER LEVEL AS YOU WANT. EASY TO SHOW & PRICED TO SELL!!!

8. 2024-03-30
   price $272,900

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   REDUCED TO SELL FOR THIS GREAT LAKE FRONT OPPORTUNITY!!! OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH 2 LARGE BEDROOMS THAT COULD EASILY BE CONVERTED BACK TO 3 BEDSROOMS. ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED (STOVE, REFRIGERATOR, WASHER & DRYER). NEWER GAS HOT WATER BOILER FOR EVEN RADIANT HEAT. NEWER HOT WATER HEATER. BASEMENT HAS BEEN WATERPROOFED. OPEN SLATE TO FINISH LOWER LEVEL AS YOU WANT. EASY TO SHOW & PRICED TO SELL!!!

9. 2024-03-10
   listed $279,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   REDUCED TO SELL FOR THIS GREAT LAKE FRONT OPPORTUNITY!!! OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH 2 LARGE BEDROOMS THAT COULD EASILY BE CONVERTED BACK TO 3 BEDSROOMS. ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED (STOVE, REFRIGERATOR, WASHER & DRYER). NEWER GAS HOT WATER BOILER FOR EVEN RADIANT HEAT. NEWER HOT WATER HEATER. BASEMENT HAS BEEN WATERPROOFED. OPEN SLATE TO FINISH LOWER LEVEL AS YOU WANT. EASY TO SHOW & PRICED TO SELL!!!

10. 2024-03-10
    listed $279,900 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    REDUCED TO SELL FOR THIS GREAT LAKE FRONT OPPORTUNITY!!! OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH 2 LARGE BEDROOMS THAT COULD EASILY BE CONVERTED BACK TO 3 BEDSROOMS. ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED (STOVE, REFRIGERATOR, WASHER & DRYER). NEWER GAS HOT WATER BOILER FOR EVEN RADIANT HEAT. NEWER HOT WATER HEATER. BASEMENT HAS BEEN WATERPROOFED. OPEN SLATE TO FINISH LOWER LEVEL AS YOU WANT. EASY TO SHOW & PRICED TO SELL!!!

11. 2023-10-17
    historical
12. 2023-10-17
    historical
13. 2023-10-06
    price $299,000
14. 2023-10-06
    price $299,000
15. 2023-09-11
    listed $315,000 Active
16. 2023-09-11
    listed $315,000 Active
17. 1999-04-12
    soldstatus $145,000
18. 1999-04-12
    soldstatus $145,000
19. 1999-03-08
    historical
20. 1999-01-20
    listed $154,900
21. 1999-01-19
    listed $154,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,643 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,643 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,536
• − Property taxes: −$4,643
• − Insurance: −$1,298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,245
• − Management: −$2,245
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$7,549
• Taxable loss: −$4,549
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,092
• After-tax cash flow: $895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Auburn Hills

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #3766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,514
• Population (ZIP): 12,250

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.18%
• Current HPI: 180.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+59.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $247,500 Public Records
• 2024-06-07 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-07 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-12 Price Changed $259,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-12 Price Changed $259,500 REALCOMP
• 2024-03-30 Price Changed $272,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-03-30 Price Changed $272,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-03-10 Listed $279,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-03-10 Listed $279,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-10-17 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-17 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-06 Price Changed $299,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-06 Price Changed $299,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-09-11 Listed $315,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-09-11 Listed $315,000 REALCOMP
• 1999-04-12 Sold (MLS) $145,000 REALCOMP
• 1999-04-12 Sold (MLS) $145,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1999-03-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1999-01-20 Listed $154,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1999-01-19 Listed $154,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,643 · +74.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.