9253 Route 417 · Shinglehouse, PA 14754

$134,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Built 2015 Fair condition 0.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right into this Very Well Kept Mobile home on . 46 acres of land in the middle of Ceres, NY (see pictures for map of location). This home was built in 2016 with a new septic system, new well pump in 2018, new hot water tank 2020, and large storage shed in large back yard. Freshly painted with new carpet last month. It has an excellent open floor plan and large kitchen area. It offers a lot of conveniences with a nice large lot that provides plenty of room for outdoor activities. Across the street to the river for easy access for kayaking and close to state lands for hiking and hunting. Low heating costs in winter. Second driveway in backyard at lower street out back, to park your RV.

Key facts

• New septic aerator
• Front porch
• Wrap-around deck

Tags

• NEW SEPTIC AERATOR
• WATER SYSTEM FOR IRON
• SECOND STORY ADDED TO SHED
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• WRAP-AROUND DECK
• FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-20/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,290 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bolivar-Richburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #395 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $135k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $117,796 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $71,313
• Equity at exit: $119,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $209,587
• Equity at exit: $255,030

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14754

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $134,658

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $45	+0% $-2	+5% $-48	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $-48	+0% $-2	+5% $45	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $66	-0.5pp $33	base $-2	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-22
   listed $134,900 Active
3. 2021-11-09
   soldstatus $70,000 Closed Sale or Rented 698-char remark

   Show marketing remark (698 chars)

   Move right into this Very Well Kept Mobile home on . 46 acres of land in the middle of Ceres, NY (see pictures for map of location). This home was built in 2016 with a new septic system, new well pump in 2018, new hot water tank 2020, and large storage shed in large back yard. Freshly painted with new carpet last month. It has an excellent open floor plan and large kitchen area. It offers a lot of conveniences with a nice large lot that provides plenty of room for outdoor activities. Across the street to the river for easy access for kayaking and close to state lands for hiking and hunting. Low heating costs in winter. Second driveway in backyard at lower street out back, to park your RV.

4. 2021-07-25
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 698-char remark

   Show marketing remark (698 chars)

   Move right into this Very Well Kept Mobile home on . 46 acres of land in the middle of Ceres, NY (see pictures for map of location). This home was built in 2016 with a new septic system, new well pump in 2018, new hot water tank 2020, and large storage shed in large back yard. Freshly painted with new carpet last month. It has an excellent open floor plan and large kitchen area. It offers a lot of conveniences with a nice large lot that provides plenty of room for outdoor activities. Across the street to the river for easy access for kayaking and close to state lands for hiking and hunting. Low heating costs in winter. Second driveway in backyard at lower street out back, to park your RV.

5. 2021-06-03
   listed $79,000 Active 698-char remark

   Show marketing remark (698 chars)

   Move right into this Very Well Kept Mobile home on . 46 acres of land in the middle of Ceres, NY (see pictures for map of location). This home was built in 2016 with a new septic system, new well pump in 2018, new hot water tank 2020, and large storage shed in large back yard. Freshly painted with new carpet last month. It has an excellent open floor plan and large kitchen area. It offers a lot of conveniences with a nice large lot that provides plenty of room for outdoor activities. Across the street to the river for easy access for kayaking and close to state lands for hiking and hunting. Low heating costs in winter. Second driveway in backyard at lower street out back, to park your RV.

6. 2017-06-19
   historical
7. 2017-01-23
   price $59,900
8. 2017-01-05
   price $86,000
9. 2017-01-04
   price $80,000
10. 2017-01-02
    listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,131
• − Management: −$1,131
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$2,305
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$553
• After-tax cash flow: $533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with a focus on the exterior and deck. Painting and updating the interior will significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major wooden deck — visible wear and tear
• Major wooden deck railings — visible wear and tear
• Major wooden deck flooring — visible wear and tear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both repair deck — improves safety and value
• Both replace carpet — fresh carpet enhances comfort and value
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances comfort and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
wooden deck · visible wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
wooden deck railings · visible wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
wooden deck flooring · visible wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair deck — improves safety and value ↑
• Both replace carpet — fresh carpet enhances comfort and value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances comfort and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolivar-Richburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600012
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,153
• Composite: 42.26/100
• National rank: #3277
• State rank: #395 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shinglehouse

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #1290
• US rank: #15793

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 633

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.78%
• Current HPI: 303.6191
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+50.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $134,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-11-09 Sold (MLS) $70,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-07-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-06-03 Listed $79,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-06-19 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-01-23 Price Changed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-01-05 Price Changed $86,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-01-04 Price Changed $80,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-01-02 Listed $89,900 WNYREIS