340 Old Mill Rd #265 · Eastern Goleta Valley, CA 93110

$489,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,481 sqft · Manufactured · 23 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very rare factory built 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 24 x 62, Dualwide premier. Formal living & dining rooms, large kitchen with new flooring & appliances, family room with slider to deck. Master has mirrored closets, bath with tub, shower & his & her sinks. Newer roof, quake bracing, bath & laundry room floors. New exterior paint. CLA to show. Adults 55+, pool,spa, tennis.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Clubhouse with gym
• Garage

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• YEAR ROUND HEATED POOL
• PRIVATE TENNIS COURTS
• PRIVATE PICKLEBALL COURTS
• CLUBHOUSE WITH LIBRARY
• CLUBHOUSE WITH GYM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (with limitations)
• HOA & community: Association amenities include pool, spa/hot tub, clubhouse, gym, tennis courts, game room, greenbelt, RV/boat storage, and guest parking; Association covers water, trash, and common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 3 carport spaces; Attached garage with inside entrance
• Utilities: Private water system; Sewer hookup
• Home design: Contemporary style; Single-story; Double wide manufactured home (Dualwide Premier, 24' x 62'); One building; Good condition
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Composition (asphalt) roof; Pier and post foundation
• Exterior features: Fruit trees; Drought-tolerant landscaping; Shed(s); Level lot; Near public transit; Mountain view

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar (kitchen/dining feature)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on ground floor
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Laundry room with gas hookup; Carpet flooring; Breakfast bar and breakfast area; Dining is in the living room; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Gas hookup in laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $489k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $483k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $482k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 1.2% in Eastern Goleta Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $137k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($482k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $295k; list at $489k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 11→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $481,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.85%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $112,149
• Equity at exit: $246,676

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $330,316
• Equity at exit: $402,462

Cash invested: $136,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93110

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,834 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,564
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$611 /mo · $7,335/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,015
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,278

Max offer price $489,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $777	-5% $608	+0% $439	+5% $270	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $57	-5% $248	+0% $439	+5% $630	+10% $821
Rate	-1.0pp $686	-0.5pp $564	base $439	+0.5pp $313	+1.0pp $184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,250
• Closing costs: $14,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4099 Foothill Rd Santa Barbara, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1450	$4,700	$3.24	15d	2	0.54mi
4120 Via Andorra Unit A Santa Barbara, CA	3.0	2.5	1456	$5,950	$4.09	24d	1	0.69mi
4632 Tajo Dr Santa Barbara, CA	3.0	2.0	1251	$5,150	$4.12	15d	1	1.09mi
30 La Cumbre Cir Santa Barbara, CA	2.0	2.0	1092	$4,400	$4.03	14d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $489,000 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $489,000 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $489,000 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $489,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $489,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
6. 2026-05-11
   listed $489,000 Active
7. 2008-07-03
   soldstatus $295,000 386-char remark

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   Very rare factory built 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 24 x 62, Dualwide premier. Formal living & dining rooms, large kitchen with new flooring & appliances, family room with slider to deck. Master has mirrored closets, bath with tub, shower & his & her sinks. Newer roof, quake bracing, bath & laundry room floors. New exterior paint. CLA to show. Adults 55+, pool,spa, tennis.

8. 2008-06-12
   listed $299,000 386-char remark

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   Very rare factory built 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 24 x 62, Dualwide premier. Formal living & dining rooms, large kitchen with new flooring & appliances, family room with slider to deck. Master has mirrored closets, bath with tub, shower & his & her sinks. Newer roof, quake bracing, bath & laundry room floors. New exterior paint. CLA to show. Adults 55+, pool,spa, tennis.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 11 d/yr ≥83°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,392
• − Property taxes: −$7,335
• − Insurance: −$2,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,640
• − Management: −$4,640
• − Depreciation: −$14,225
• Taxable loss: −$2,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$642
• After-tax cash flow: $5,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Eastern Goleta Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eastern Goleta Valley, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 34,619
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 15,436
• Household income: $129,209
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 415.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Current HPI: 323.0805
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+63.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $489,000 SBMLS
• 2008-07-03 Sold (MLS) $295,000 SBMLS
• 2008-06-12 Listed $299,000 SBMLS

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $69 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.