9314 Oak Knoll Ln · Houston, TX 77078

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1965 8,807 sqft lot $134/sqft · 8% below area Est $168k · 8% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors Dream. NO HOA. A Diamond in the Rough. Not too far from Downtown Houston or Intercontinental Airport. Spacious Rooms, and a Big back yard. Send your offers will not last long. Please verify room dimensions.

Key facts

• Big back yard
• No hoa
• 8,807 sq ft lot

Tags

• NO HOA
• BIG BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($881/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,592/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,139
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -7.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9306 Woodlyn Rd	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,139 (-2%)	12mo	$143,800	$126	82
9334 Laura Koppe Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-7%)	3mo	$189,900	$176	78
9315 Oak Knoll Ln	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,236 (+6%)	15mo	$135,000	$109	76
9319 Richland Dr	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,036 (-11%)	12mo	$145,000	$140	66
9219 Linda Vista Rd	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,335 (+15%)	1mo	$210,000	$157	63
9327 Richland Dr	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,018 (-12%)	13mo	$140,000	$138	62
9203 Richland Dr	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,060 (-9%)	12mo	$143,000	$135	60
9037 Linda Vista Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-6%)	6mo	$189,000	$173	60
8901 Woodlyn Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,228 (+6%)	2mo	$155,000	$126	56
8913 Linda Vista Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,266 (+9%)	4mo	$175,000	$138	52
8837 Richland Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,132 (-2%)	14mo	$140,000	$124	52
9006 Homewood Ln	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+12%)	14mo	$175,000	$135	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $19,357
• Equity at exit: $65,347

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $67,692
• Equity at exit: $97,450

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77078

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,592 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,682/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,499

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9133 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	3d	1	0.40mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	20d	1	0.82mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,107	$1.07	24d	1	0.82mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	43d	1	0.82mi
9943 Valley Wind Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,595	$1.21	2d	1	0.82mi
8523 Brock Park Blvd Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1130	$1,375	$1.22	5d	1	0.90mi
9393 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1135	$1,244	$1.10	1d	10	0.92mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,185	$1.20	43d	1	0.92mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,200	$1.22	24d	1	0.92mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	0.96mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	0.96mi
8627 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	0.98mi
8625 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	0.99mi
8623 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,850	$1.61	18d	1	0.99mi
8623 Homewood Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,850	$1.61	43d	1	0.99mi
8602 Wilkins Oaks Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,775	$1.36	43d	1	1.00mi
8711 Southwark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	43d	1	1.04mi
9930 Valley Lake Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1385	$1,795	$1.30	43d	1	1.20mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	1.28mi
7600 E Houston Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,436	$1.41	13d	8	1.30mi
9700 Mesa Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	784	$989	$1.26	1d	8	1.31mi
8600 Sterlingshire St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	732	$1,050	$1.43	24d	2	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $155,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-02-28
    price $155,000 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Investors Dream. NO HOA. A Diamond in the Rough. Not too far from Downtown Houston or Intercontinental Airport. Spacious Rooms, and a Big back yard. Send your offers will not last long. Please verify room dimensions.

13. 2026-02-16
    listed $169,900 Active 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Investors Dream. NO HOA. A Diamond in the Rough. Not too far from Downtown Houston or Intercontinental Airport. Spacious Rooms, and a Big back yard. Send your offers will not last long. Please verify room dimensions.

14. 1999-01-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,682 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,682 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$3,682
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,528
• − Management: −$1,528
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$384
• After-tax cash flow: $1,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,247
• Household income: $39,093
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 41%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 307.0842
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $169,900 HARMLS
• 1999-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,682 · -8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.