106 Lillian Ct · Roxboro, NC 27573

$234,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · SingleFamily · 162 Days on market

Built 2026 0.29 ac lot Est $216k · 9% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Model 1401 A1 - Yellowstone

Key facts

• Central island
• Open-concept kitchen
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.29 acres; Living area reported as 1,401 above-grade square feet
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: One-story house; Yellowstone model
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of the Yellowstone builder model
• Exterior features: Public-maintained road access; Zoned SFR (single-family residential)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric heat pump); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Person High (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,079 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $180,270 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.64%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,754
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
86 Maggie Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,265 (-10%)	3mo	$219,000	$173	73
137 Lillian Ct	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,600 (+14%)	4mo	$240,990	$151	71
51 Landon Pl	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,600 (+14%)	4mo	$238,990	$149	63
176 Lillian Ct	0.20mi	4/2.5	1,600 (+14%)	7mo	$241,993	$151	59
132 Lillian Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,202 (-14%)	6mo	$224,488	$187	59
250 Landon Pl	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,600 (+14%)	6mo	$246,190	$154	56
140 Lillian Ct	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,600 (+14%)	8mo	$248,993	$156	55
225 Landon Pl	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,600 (+14%)	8mo	$255,490	$160	54
142 Yarborough St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,280 (-9%)	3mo	$59,900	$47	54
76 Landon Pl	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,600 (+14%)	8mo	$246,601	$154	54
224 Landon Pl	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,202 (-14%)	7mo	$219,997	$183	53
245 Lillian Ct	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,600 (+14%)	8mo	$238,000	$149	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $69,454
• Equity at exit: $162,945

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $211,445
• Equity at exit: $309,615

Cash invested: $65,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27573

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,803 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $206,074

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-119	+0% $-200	+5% $-281	+10% $-362
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-271	+0% $-200	+5% $-129	+10% $-57
Rate	-1.0pp $-81	-0.5pp $-140	base $-200	+0.5pp $-261	+1.0pp $-323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,748
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,990 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,990 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,990 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,990 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   price $234,990 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,990 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,990 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $235,990 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $238,990 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $238,990 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $238,990 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,990 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $238,990 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,990 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,990 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,990 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,990 Active 141 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    price $238,990 27-char remark

    Show marketing remark (27 chars)

    Model 1401 A1 - Yellowstone

19. 2026-05-22
    price $238,990

    Show marketing remark (27 chars)

    Model 1401 A1 - Yellowstone

20. 2026-05-14
    price $242,990
21. 2026-05-13
    price $242,990 27-char remark

    Show marketing remark (27 chars)

    Model 1401 A1 - Yellowstone

22. 2026-03-18
    price $244,990
23. 2026-03-05
    price $244,990 27-char remark

    Show marketing remark (27 chars)

    Model 1401 A1 - Yellowstone

24. 2026-01-09
    listed $256,990 Active
25. 2026-01-03
    price $256,990 27-char remark

    Show marketing remark (27 chars)

    Model 1401 A1 - Yellowstone

26. 2026-01-02
    listed $257,740 Active 27-char remark

    Show marketing remark (27 chars)

    Model 1401 A1 - Yellowstone

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,163
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,731
• − Management: −$1,731
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$6,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,567
• After-tax cash flow: $-831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Person County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,729
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5242
• State rank: #110 of 178 in NC

Livability — Roxboro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #23536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,954
• Population (ZIP): 11,954

Population outlook (Person County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,577 people
• By 2030: 37,847 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,740 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 32,683 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 24,979 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 15,779 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Person

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.7) · D 37.7% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -23.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.7 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.01%
• Current HPI: 286.1496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $238,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $238,990 TMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $242,990 TMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $244,990 TMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Listed $256,990 TMLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-02 Listed $257,740 Zillow