16204 Pointer Dr · Foley, AL 36535

$249,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1998 10,193 sqft lot $167/sqft · 8% below area Est $273k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home in Foley with a separate bedroom and half bathroom on one side and the other three bedrooms and two bathrooms on the other. Shed in the backyard for storage and wooded background for great views! Inside and outside A/C units are less than a year old. Fresh paint on the outside and inside. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Two bathrooms
• Separate bedroom
• Wooded background

Tags

• SEPARATE BEDROOM
• HALF BATHROOM
• THREE BEDROOMS
• TWO BATHROOMS
• SHED IN BACKYARD
• WOODED BACKGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.0% in Foley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 875 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $180k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,854 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.29%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,024
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -8.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16089 Mansion St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-3%)	6mo	$261,500	$179	72
12971 Labradors Run	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-10%)	1mo	$230,000	$170	70
16063 Mansion St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+3%)	10mo	$274,000	$177	70
13072 Labradors Run	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-6%)	10mo	$250,000	$178	66
16423 Absalom St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,353 (-10%)	2mo	$235,000	$174	60
13577 Chartres St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-8%)	11mo	$215,000	$156	59
16484 Mansion St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-6%)	8mo	$255,000	$182	58
16377 Mansion St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-11%)	1mo	$259,900	$195	58
13769 Trident Gum Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,526 (+2%)	7mo	$230,000	$151	54
16399 Mansion St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-12%)	8mo	$244,000	$185	50
16615 Sweet Gum Blvd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,403 (-6%)	6mo	$246,000	$175	46
16695 Sugar Loop	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+7%)	11mo	$235,000	$146	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-30,875
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-21,590
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 875
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $521/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,846

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $333	-5% $263	+0% $192	+5% $-163	+10% $-250
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $109	+0% $192	+5% $274	+10% $357
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $255	base $192	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13634 Logan Pl , AL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,895	$1.48	22d	1	0.83mi
13691 Logan Pl , AL	4.0	2.0	1417	$1,995	$1.41	22d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-04-21
    price $249,900 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Home in Foley with a separate bedroom and half bathroom on one side and the other three bedrooms and two bathrooms on the other. Shed in the backyard for storage and wooded background for great views! Inside and outside A/C units are less than a year old. Fresh paint on the outside and inside. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2026-03-29
    listed $260,000 Active 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Home in Foley with a separate bedroom and half bathroom on one side and the other three bedrooms and two bathrooms on the other. Shed in the backyard for storage and wooded background for great views! Inside and outside A/C units are less than a year old. Fresh paint on the outside and inside. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2022-06-27
    soldstatus $180,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $521 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$504/yr (+$42/mo · 96.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$521
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$1,986
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$477
• After-tax cash flow: $2,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Foley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 40,628
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+38.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $249,900 BCAR
• 2026-03-29 Listed $260,000 BCAR
• 2022-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $521 · +19.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.