2920 Webb Ave · Lake Isabella, CA 93240

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 98 Days on market

Built 1968 0.29 ac lot $199/sqft · at area comps Est $195k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mountain views and thoughtful upgrades come together in this charming Lake Isabella home. This updated 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom property features new Pergo flooring, fresh interior paint, new windows, and a cozy living space with a pellet stove and mini split heating and cooling system. The kitchen offers granite countertops, a vintage style sink, and knotty pine accents, adding warmth and character throughout the home. Step outside to a fully fenced lot with a detached one car garage, two storage sheds, grape vines, and an apricot tree. The spacious 20x20 rear patio is hot tub ready, making it the perfect place to relax and enjoy the peaceful mountain surroundings. If you're looking for comfort, charm, and beautiful views in Lake Isabella, this home is ready to welcome you!

Key facts

• New pergo flooring
• Pellet stove
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• NEW PERGO FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW WINDOWS
• PELLET STOVE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 7.4% in Lake Isabella — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#999 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 12→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,490
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 1.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2621 Lupine St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,079 (+8%)	8mo	$187,500	$174	63
2720 Webb Ave	0.13mi	2/1.0	1,136 (+14%)	21mo	$210,000	$185	50
2817 Steensen St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,026 (+3%)	21mo	$130,000	$127	47
2612 Flower St	0.52mi	2/1.0	926 (-7%)	18mo	$186,800	$202	44
2804 Edna St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+12%)	24mo	$245,000	$219	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $45,119
• Equity at exit: $119,487

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $139,850
• Equity at exit: $211,997

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $182,903

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Larch Ct Bodfish, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,600	$1.11	2d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-04-12
    price $199,000 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Mountain views and thoughtful upgrades come together in this charming Lake Isabella home. This updated 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom property features new Pergo flooring, fresh interior paint, new windows, and a cozy living space with a pellet stove and mini split heating and cooling system. The kitchen offers granite countertops, a vintage style sink, and knotty pine accents, adding warmth and character throughout the home. Step outside to a fully fenced lot with a detached one car garage, two storage sheds, grape vines, and an apricot tree. The spacious 20x20 rear patio is hot tub ready, making it the perfect place to relax and enjoy the peaceful mountain surroundings. If you're looking for comfort, charm, and beautiful views in Lake Isabella, this home is ready to welcome you!

17. 2026-03-12
    listed $214,999 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Mountain views and thoughtful upgrades come together in this charming Lake Isabella home. This updated 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom property features new Pergo flooring, fresh interior paint, new windows, and a cozy living space with a pellet stove and mini split heating and cooling system. The kitchen offers granite countertops, a vintage style sink, and knotty pine accents, adding warmth and character throughout the home. Step outside to a fully fenced lot with a detached one car garage, two storage sheds, grape vines, and an apricot tree. The spacious 20x20 rear patio is hot tub ready, making it the perfect place to relax and enjoy the peaceful mountain surroundings. If you're looking for comfort, charm, and beautiful views in Lake Isabella, this home is ready to welcome you!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 12 d/yr ≥94°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,788
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,149
• After-tax cash flow: $-186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #24814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, CA
• City population: 5,622
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $199,000 GEMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $214,999 GEMLS