1207 Robinson · El Dorado, AR 71730

$54,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

6,969 sqft lot $64/sqft · 17% below area Est $66k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special in central El Dorado! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home includes a new roof and new windows, adding immediate value. Centrally located with strong rental or resale potential - great opportunity to add to your portfolio.

Key facts

• Central el dorado
• New roof
• New windows

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• CENTRAL EL DORADO
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL
• STRONG RESALE POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Hardie Board exterior; Inside city limits
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Crawl space and piers foundation; New roof and new windows
• Exterior features: Deck; Fully fenced yard; Outside storage area; Chain link fencing; Dirt road access; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range; Convection oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; Convection oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($914 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 4.1% in El Dorado — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#65 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D, employment D.
• El Dorado School District (town): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #134 of 238 in AR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $55k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 36% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,076 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.57%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,061
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -16.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1109 W 7th St	0.52mi	2/1.0	968 (+12%)	18mo	$103,500	$107	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $15,222
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $44,286
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71730

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $914 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $385/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $434

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $410	-5% $394	+0% $379	+5% $363	+10% $348
Rent	-10% $307	-5% $343	+0% $379	+5% $415	+10% $451
Rate	-1.0pp $406	-0.5pp $393	base $379	+0.5pp $365	+1.0pp $350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Under Contract 230-char remark
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $54,900 New Listing 230-char remark
3. 2016-02-24
   soldstatus $35,000
4. 1999-06-14
   soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $385 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $385 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 36% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$385
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$877
• − Management: −$877
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $3,876
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$930
• After-tax cash flow: $3,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Dorado School District
• NCES district ID: 0505680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,122
• Composite: 27.36/100
• National rank: #6979
• State rank: #134 of 238 in AR

Livability — El Dorado

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #8444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Dorado, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,187

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,422 people
• By 2030: 35,808 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 32,605 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 29,688 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 23,691 · -36.7%
• By 2100: 17,950 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.36%
• Current HPI: 155.8786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+149.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $54,900 CARMLS
• 2016-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $385 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.