15-1405 25th Ave · Hawaiian Paradise Park, HI 96749

$319,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1988 1.00 ac lot $316/sqft · 20% below area Est $398k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very Cute and Cozy 2 bedroom 2 bath Starter home in excellent condition with open beam ceilings and hardwood floors. Desirable location on newly paved street between Shower and Kaloli Dr. with easy access to the highway for quick commute to Hilo. Kitchen designed with pull out pantry drawers and open shelving for a nice display of coordinating dinnerware. Also includes a Seagull drinking water filtration system. Full bath and enclosed laundry downstairs with lots of room for expansion of additional living area. Private back lanai for relaxing or outdoor dining. Solar hot water panels for energy efficiency & pressure pump holding tank for catchment water supply. Also new catchment liner. Front boundary fenced with 2 gates designed for circular drive thru. Surrounding landscaping provide for privacy and preservation of natural lava rocks. Home Depot storage shed under house included in sale.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road maintenance fee (annual): $435; Home exemption amount listed
• HOA & community: No common area expenses; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Unassigned parking
• Utilities: Catchment water; Cesspool sewer; Electricity available; Cable and phone available; Internet: Cable, fiber-optic, satellite; No solid waste disposal service listed
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Zoned A-1A; No unpermitted improvements reported
• Construction: Ownership: Full
• Exterior features: Full wire fencing; Fairly level topography; Road/street frontage; Private paved road access; Roofed area listed (property detail)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms, both full
• Heating & cooling: Air conditioning; Gas tankless water heater
• Interior features: Hardwood and laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-878/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.8% in Hawaiian Paradise Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#81 in HI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $188k; list at $319k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,523 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $397,510
• List price: $319,000
• Delta: -19.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15-1480 27th Ave	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,128 (+12%)	6mo	$376,000	$333	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $121
• Equity at exit: $107,775

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $52,197
• Equity at exit: $142,356

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96749

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,365 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $964/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,458

Max offer price $306,075

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $17	+0% $-73	+5% $-163	+10% $-254
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-167	+0% $-73	+5% $20	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $8	base $-73	+0.5pp $-156	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15-1553 24th Ave Unit B Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	44d	1	0.68mi
151300 Railroad Ave Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1401	$3,000	$2.14	44d	1	0.73mi
151412 17th Ave Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1151	$2,650	$2.30	24d	1	1.01mi
15-1669 24th Ave Unit A Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1224	$2,500	$2.04	3d	1	1.24mi
15-1669 24th Ave Unit B Keaau, HI	2.0	1.0	864	$2,200	$2.55	3d	1	1.24mi
15-1551 Lokelani Ave Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,500	$1.88	44d	1	1.27mi
15-1510 14th Ave Unit A Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1337	$2,900	$2.17	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   status $319,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active Under Contract 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $319,000 Active Under Contract 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $339,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,000 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,000 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,000 Active Under Contract 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $339,000 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,000 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    price $360,000 1439-char remark
18. 2026-04-16
    listed $374,000 Active 1439-char remark
19. 2014-10-22
    soldstatus $188,050 908-char remark

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    Very Cute and Cozy 2 bedroom 2 bath Starter home in excellent condition with open beam ceilings and hardwood floors. Desirable location on newly paved street between Shower and Kaloli Dr. with easy access to the highway for quick commute to Hilo. Kitchen designed with pull out pantry drawers and open shelving for a nice display of coordinating dinnerware. Also includes a Seagull drinking water filtration system. Full bath and enclosed laundry downstairs with lots of room for expansion of additional living area. Private back lanai for relaxing or outdoor dining. Solar hot water panels for energy efficiency & pressure pump holding tank for catchment water supply. Also new catchment liner. Front boundary fenced with 2 gates designed for circular drive thru. Surrounding landscaping provide for privacy and preservation of natural lava rocks. Home Depot storage shed under house included in sale.

20. 2014-08-15
    listed $198,500 908-char remark

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    Very Cute and Cozy 2 bedroom 2 bath Starter home in excellent condition with open beam ceilings and hardwood floors. Desirable location on newly paved street between Shower and Kaloli Dr. with easy access to the highway for quick commute to Hilo. Kitchen designed with pull out pantry drawers and open shelving for a nice display of coordinating dinnerware. Also includes a Seagull drinking water filtration system. Full bath and enclosed laundry downstairs with lots of room for expansion of additional living area. Private back lanai for relaxing or outdoor dining. Solar hot water panels for energy efficiency & pressure pump holding tank for catchment water supply. Also new catchment liner. Front boundary fenced with 2 gates designed for circular drive thru. Surrounding landscaping provide for privacy and preservation of natural lava rocks. Home Depot storage shed under house included in sale.

21. 1998-07-10
    soldstatus $78,000
22. 1987-12-01
    soldstatus $11,000
23. 1981-07-01
    soldstatus $15,000
24. 1981-06-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $964 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $964 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$964
• − Insurance: −$2,262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$6,533
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,568
• After-tax cash flow: $690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Hawaiian Paradise Park

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #18406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hawaiian Paradise Park, HI
• County: Hawaii County · 119,311 people
• Metro: Hilo, HI
• Population (ZIP): 19,132
• Household income: $85,399
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 290.0

Population outlook (Hawaii County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,733 people
• By 2030: 232,156 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 252,486 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 272,703 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 332,113 · +50.5%
• By 2100: 398,342 · +80.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.87)
• Race & ethnicity: Two or more races 33% White 24% Asian 22% Pacific Islander 14% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 9% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 15% Vietnamese 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawaii

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.3) · D 63.0% · R 34.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.7pp · 2024: 28.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.3 2020: D+36.2 2016: D+36.6 2012: D+51.3 2008: D+53.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Current HPI: 183.9836
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hilo, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2026.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Relisted — HI Information Service
• 2026-06-12 Contingent — HI Information Service
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $319,000 HI Information Service
• 2026-06-09 Relisted — HI Information Service
• 2026-06-05 Contingent — HI Information Service
• 2026-06-05 Relisted — HI Information Service
• 2026-05-28 Contingent — HI Information Service
• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $339,000 HI Information Service
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $360,000 HI Information Service
• 2026-04-16 Listed $374,000 HI Information Service
• 2014-10-22 Sold (MLS) $188,050 HI Information Service
• 2014-08-15 Listed $198,500 HI Information Service
• 1998-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1987-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 1981-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1981-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $964 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.