Plan 2091 Modeled Plan · Justin, TX 76247

$341,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,091 sqft · SingleFamily · 839 Days on market

↓ 13% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * Spacious walk-in closet at primary suite * Dedicated laundry room * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Walking paths * Playgrounds * Pavilions * Swimming pool * Near local schools

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 838 days

🏗️ New construction. The $341,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $423,103.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $342k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-770 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#443 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Justin El (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 605 students, 24% FRL); Gene Pike Middle (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,150 students, 29% FRL); Northwest H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,264 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1516 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 839 days — a 12% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $272,705 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 839 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.80%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,103
• List price: $341,990
• Delta: -19.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
300 Laurel Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	2,091 (0%)	4mo	$421,498	$202	91
106 Rockwood Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,085 (-0%)	3mo	$375,081	$180	79
605 Tracy Ct	0.05mi	3/2.5	2,325 (+11%)	1mo	$400,840	$172	76
500 Claremont Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,106 (+1%)	5mo	$429,990	$204	76
1113 Linwood Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,106 (+1%)	1mo	$389,990	$185	74
289 Hilltop Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,918 (-8%)	4mo	$439,900	$229	65
244 Ovaletta Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (-10%)	1mo	$425,000	$226	64
104 Northampton Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,325 (+11%)	5mo	$403,690	$174	62
268 Hilltop Dr	0.48mi	3/3.0	2,248 (+8%)	1mo	$349,500	$155	60
1002 Stonehaven Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,103 (+1%)	3mo	$452,650	$215	58
1010 Stonehaven Dr	0.63mi	3/3.0	2,255 (+8%)	2mo	$485,934	$215	52
330 Sedalia Trl	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,902 (-9%)	3mo	$350,619	$184	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-125,528
• Equity at exit: $63,086

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-203,142
• Equity at exit: $36,582

Cash invested: $118,469 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 1516
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,727 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,219
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$529 /mo · $6,347/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-770

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,701

Max offer price $311,741

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-477	-5% $-623	+0% $-770	+5% $-916	+10% $-1,062
Rent	-10% $-985	-5% $-877	+0% $-770	+5% $-662	+10% $-554
Rate	-1.0pp $-557	-0.5pp $-662	base $-770	+0.5pp $-879	+1.0pp $-991

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,776
• Closing costs: $12,693
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
715 Parkside Dr Justin, TX	4.0	2.5	2978	$3,150	$1.06	1d	1	0.12mi
620 W 1st St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$2,500	$1.20	12d	1	0.57mi
602 W 3rd St Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,850	$1.17	14d	1	0.65mi
439 Ridge Dr Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1996	$2,450	$1.23	45d	1	0.98mi
810 Tally Blvd Justin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1212	$2,465	$2.03	0d	30	1.31mi
210 Spruce Valley Dr Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2238	$2,800	$1.25	19d	1	1.39mi
1375 Silverthorn Trl Justin, TX	4.0	3.0	2221	$3,000	$1.35	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $341,990 Active 839 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $341,990 Active 836 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $341,990 Active 835 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $341,990 Active 834 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $341,990 Active 833 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $341,990 Active 831 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $341,990 Active 827 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $341,990 Active 826 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $341,990 Active 825 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $341,990 Active 822 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $341,990 Active 821 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $341,990 Active 820 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $341,990 Active 819 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $341,990 Active 818 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    price $341,990 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * Spacious walk-in closet at primary suite * Dedicated laundry room * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Walking paths * Playgrounds * Pavilions * Swimming pool * Near local schools

16. 2025-11-06
    price $356,990 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * Spacious walk-in closet at primary suite * Dedicated laundry room * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Walking paths * Playgrounds * Pavilions * Swimming pool * Near local schools

17. 2025-08-14
    price $346,990 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * Spacious walk-in closet at primary suite * Dedicated laundry room * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Walking paths * Playgrounds * Pavilions * Swimming pool * Near local schools

18. 2025-07-16
    price $344,990 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * Spacious walk-in closet at primary suite * Dedicated laundry room * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Walking paths * Playgrounds * Pavilions * Swimming pool * Near local schools

19. 2025-02-21
    price $343,990 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * Spacious walk-in closet at primary suite * Dedicated laundry room * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Walking paths * Playgrounds * Pavilions * Swimming pool * Near local schools

20. 2024-11-04
    price $373,990 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * Spacious walk-in closet at primary suite * Dedicated laundry room * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Walking paths * Playgrounds * Pavilions * Swimming pool * Near local schools

21. 2024-04-10
    price $372,990 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * Spacious walk-in closet at primary suite * Dedicated laundry room * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Walking paths * Playgrounds * Pavilions * Swimming pool * Near local schools

22. 2024-03-16
    price $370,995 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * Spacious walk-in closet at primary suite * Dedicated laundry room * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Walking paths * Playgrounds * Pavilions * Swimming pool * Near local schools

23. 2024-03-05
    listed $390,995 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Smart thermostat * Spacious walk-in closet at primary suite * Dedicated laundry room * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Walking paths * Playgrounds * Pavilions * Swimming pool * Near local schools

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,700
• − Property taxes: −$6,347
• − Insurance: −$2,116
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,618
• − Management: −$2,618
• − Depreciation: −$12,308
• Taxable loss: −$16,982
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,076
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Justin

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #9059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Justin, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 21,726
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $341,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $356,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $346,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $344,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-21 Price Changed $343,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-04 Price Changed $373,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $372,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-16 Price Changed $370,995 Zillow
• 2024-03-05 Listed $390,995 Zillow