Is 2112 Fm 3186 D5 Unit D5 in Onalaska, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 1.4% cap rate and $-1,839/mo modeled cash flow at a $399,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2112 Fm 3186 D5 Unit D5?

The modeled cap rate is 1.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,100/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 28.59

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +4.9/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Appreciation +4.7/10.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Cash flow +1.2/30.0
1% rule +0.0/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0

$399,000

2112 Fm 3186 D5 Unit D5 · Onalaska, TX 77360

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Condo · 124 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $350/mo HOA · 17% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Final phase of the Bella Vista Community – brand new construction condos now available! This two-story building features spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath units designed to maximize lake views and breathtaking sunsets. Each condo includes a private exterior storage space—perfect for beach gear, brooms, coolers, and more. Enjoy the open courtyard, an ideal spot for savoring morning coffee or an evening glass of wine. Residents can swim in the pool, relax on the private beach, or take advantage of their own boat slip (with the option to add a lift). Step outside and stroll the lakeshore at your leisure.

Key facts

Lakeshore
Lake views
Private beach

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $399k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (52.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (47.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $189k (52.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 2.9% in Onalaska — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Onalaska El (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 712 students, 70% FRL); Onalaska Jr/Sr High (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 527 students, 58% FRL).
Market conditions: 444 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $2,100/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 18% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $377 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-3k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,414 (52.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.46% ✗
Cap rate: 1.45%
Cash-on-cash: -17.30%
DSCR: 0.23
GRM: 18.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $455,572
List price: $399,000
Delta: -12.42%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -26.0%
Equity multiple: -0.12×
Total profit: $-143,103
Equity at exit: $118,589

10-year hold

IRR: -19.5%
Equity multiple: -0.79×
Total profit: $-228,841
Equity at exit: $132,033

Cash invested: $127,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77360

Home prices YoY: -0.4%
Active inventory: 444
Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,100 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,389
Tax est. 1.5%: −$569 /mo · $6,834/yr
Insurance: −$190
HOA: −$350
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
Net cashflow: $-1,839

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,428

Max offer price $189,414

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,525	-5% $-1,682	+0% $-1,839	+5% $-1,997	+10% $-2,154
Rent	-10% $-2,005	-5% $-1,922	+0% $-1,839	+5% $-1,756	+10% $-1,673
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,610	-0.5pp $-1,723	base $-1,839	+0.5pp $-1,957	+1.0pp $-2,077

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $113,893
Closing costs: $13,667
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
467 Whisperwood Dr Onalaska, TX	3.0	2.0	2134	$2,100	$0.98	2d	1	1.33mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Full ownership
HOA & community: Bella Vista POAMonthly association fee ($350) covering common areas, insurance, structural maintenance and trashCommunity poolAssociation amenities include beach rights, boat dock, beach access, dry dock, and boat slip

Exterior

Parking: Assigned parkingAdditional parkingBoat parkingControlled entranceNo garage specified
Security: Controlled accessSmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)2 storiesFaces westSlab foundationHas a view
Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exteriorComposition roofBuilt in 2026
Exterior features: BalconyDeckPatioFence (partial)StorageIn-ground poolBoat dock/slipBulkheadLakefront view

Interior

Kitchen: Free-standing rangeOvenMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor)
Flooring: Plank flooringTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
Interior features: Breakfast barBalconyCrown moldingDouble vanityHigh ceilingsKitchen/family room comboSelf-closing cabinet doors and drawersSoaking tubSeparate showerTub/shower comboCeiling fansProgrammable thermostat
Laundry & utility: Laundry in utility roomElectric dryer hookupWasherDryer

HOA detail $350/mo · $4,200/yr condo

Likely covers: pool
Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $399,000 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $399,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $399,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $399,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $399,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $399,000 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $399,000 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $399,000 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $399,000 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $399,000 Active 114 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $399,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $399,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $399,000 Active 111 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $399,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $399,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $399,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $399,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $399,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $399,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $399,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $399,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $399,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $399,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $399,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $399,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $399,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $399,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $399,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $399,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $399,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $399,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $399,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $399,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $399,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $399,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $399,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $399,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $399,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $399,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $399,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $399,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $399,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $399,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $399,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $399,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $399,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $399,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $399,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $399,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $399,000 Active 59 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,200
− Mortgage interest: −$25,519
− Property taxes: −$6,834
− Insurance: −$2,278
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
− Management: −$2,016
− HOA: −$4,200
− Depreciation: −$13,253
Taxable loss: −$30,916

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,420
After-tax cash flow: $-14,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand-new construction townhouse in Bella Vista offers stunning lake views and is move-in ready. Minor updates like painting and landscaping can further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Upgrade to smart home technology — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Onalaska El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 High Onalaska Jr/sr High D+ TX #478/1,632 Nat'l #5,269/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Onalaska ISD
NCES district ID: 4833690
Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $38,882
Composite: 40.91/100
National rank: #3616
State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Onalaska

Score: 60/100
State rank: #1055
US rank: #18716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Polk · 51,049 people
Population (ZIP): 6,130
Household income: $49,004
Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 51,049 people
By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
Current HPI: 150.9486
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-23 Listed $425,000 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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