7411 Hermosa Beach Rd · Lake Goodwin, WA 98271

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1939 2,937 sqft lot $199/sqft · 103% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience extraordinary waterfront living. This low-bank home offers breathtaking, ever-changing views, direct bay access, and a rare opportunity to enjoy life on the water at a fraction of the cost of comparable deeded waterfront properties. Launch your kayak from the beach below your yard and explore the shoreline alongside otters, eagles, and seabirds. A space on the seasonal community dock is available for just $350 per year, making it easy to get out on the water whenever the tide calls. The spacious beachfront deck is the perfect place to watch sunsets over the bay, while the private garden patio offers a peaceful retreat surrounded by established landscaping. Inside, the loft-style

Key facts

• Beachfront deck
• Direct bay access
• Private garden patio

Tags

• WATERFRONT LIVING
• LOW-BANK HOME
• DIRECT BAY ACCESS
• BEACHFRONT DECK
• PRIVATE GARDEN PATIO
• LOFT-STYLE PRIMARY BEDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size recorded in square feet (approx. 0.0674 acres)
• Financial info: Cash offers only
• HOA & community: Land is leased; Community waterfront / private beach access

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Security: Fully fenced
• Utilities: Public water (Tulalip Utilities); Sewer connected (Tulalip Utilities); Electric and propane energy sources (power via Snohomish County PUD)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and a half story (1.5 story); Main level entry; Southeast-facing; Has view
• Construction: Built on lot; Wood construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete foundation; House
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck; Fully fenced yard; Outbuildings; Community waterfront / private beach access; Sloped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (1 on main level, 1 upper/loft)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with bathtub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace; Loft; Roughed-in basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $760 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 1.9% in Lake Goodwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#330 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Marysville School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #177 of 291 in WA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Quil Ceda Tulalip Elementary (503 students, 70% FRL); Totem Middle School (555 students, 71% FRL); Marysville Pilchuck High School (1,238 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 40% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.27%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,047
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 124.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $24,262
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $77,536
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98271

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,034 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $646/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $760

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,071

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $839	-5% $800	+0% $760	+5% $721	+10% $681
Rent	-10% $600	-5% $680	+0% $760	+5% $840	+10% $921
Rate	-1.0pp $831	-0.5pp $796	base $760	+0.5pp $724	+1.0pp $687

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $140,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-04-11
    price $155,000
14. 2026-01-28
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $646 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$726/yr (+$60/mo · 112.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$646
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,952
• − Management: −$1,952
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $7,237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,737
• After-tax cash flow: $7,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville School District
• NCES district ID: 5304860
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,461
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #7367
• State rank: #177 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Goodwin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #12350

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 30,838
• Household income: $95,654
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 929.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -666.16%
• Current HPI: 305.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $140,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2014): $646 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.