14950 W Mountain View Blvd #2308 · Surprise, AZ 85374

$199,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Condo public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1998 $240/sqft · 18% below area Est $242k · 18% under $526/mo HOA · 26% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Furnished condo in an absolutely fantastic location! Fresh new paint throughout. Situated on the 3rd floor, this home offers stunning views of the pool and lush green courtyard. Bright, inviting, and move-in ready--you will not be disappointed. Enjoy all the exceptional amenities and lifestyle that La Solana and The Grand have to offer.

Key facts

• Furnished condo
• Lush green courtyard
• $526 HOA

Tags

• FURNISHED CONDO
• LUSH GREEN COURTYARD
• EXCEPTIONAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingswood Elementary School (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 791 students, 59% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 406 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,948 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.39%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,430
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -17.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-47,788
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-75,154
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,988 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $853/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$526
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,188

Max offer price $171,948

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-102	+0% $-158	+5% $-215	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-237	+0% $-158	+5% $-80	+10% $-1
Rate	-1.0pp $-58	-0.5pp $-107	base $-158	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,230	$2.91	0d	3	0.08mi
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,388	$3.12	45d	3	0.08mi
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,450	$3.20	0d	2	0.08mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$1,375	$1.02	6d	8	0.45mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$1,595	$1.33	0d	6	0.45mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$1,550	$1.15	13d	9	0.45mi
15032 W Jackpot Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	923	$1,600	$1.73	26d	1	0.68mi
17927 N Parkview Pl Surprise, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,288	$1.31	0d	8	0.72mi
14155 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,243	$1.45	0d	12	0.85mi
14817 W Juneberry Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,800	$1.62	26d	1	0.95mi
16945 N Stadium Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,475	$1.49	0d	22	1.37mi
14300 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	946	$1,948	$2.06	14d	2	1.40mi
13635 W Utica Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1084	$2,750	$2.54	45d	1	1.43mi
14300 W Bell Rd Unit NA Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	938	$1,900	$2.03	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $526 · $6,312/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-01-15
    listed $229,900 Active 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Furnished condo in an absolutely fantastic location! Fresh new paint throughout. Situated on the 3rd floor, this home offers stunning views of the pool and lush green courtyard. Bright, inviting, and move-in ready--you will not be disappointed. Enjoy all the exceptional amenities and lifestyle that La Solana and The Grand have to offer.

16. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus $205,500
17. 2008-03-28
    soldstatus $132,000 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC LOCATION. LOCATED ON THE 3RD FLOOR WITH A MAGNIFICANT VIEW OF THE POOL, MOUNTAINS AND GREEN COURT YARD. FRESHLY PAINTED INSIDE AND SPOTLESS. YOU WILL NOT BE DISAPPOINTED. DESIGNER FURNITURE LESS THAN 5 MONTHS OLD. FURNITURE CAN BE PURCHASED OUTSIDE OF ESCROW. TELEVISIONS IN FAMILY ROOM AND IN BEDROOM ARE NOT INCLUDED. THERE ARE A FEW OTHER PERSONAL ITEMS THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED. NOT ONLY DO YOU GET TO ENJOY THE IMMENITIES OF LA SOLANA BUT YOU HAVE ACCESS TO THE SUN CITY GRAND FACILITIES. BUYER TO VERIFY ALL MEASUREMENTS.

18. 2008-03-28
    soldstatus $132,000

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC LOCATION. LOCATED ON THE 3RD FLOOR WITH A MAGNIFICANT VIEW OF THE POOL, MOUNTAINS AND GREEN COURT YARD. FRESHLY PAINTED INSIDE AND SPOTLESS. YOU WILL NOT BE DISAPPOINTED. DESIGNER FURNITURE LESS THAN 5 MONTHS OLD. FURNITURE CAN BE PURCHASED OUTSIDE OF ESCROW. TELEVISIONS IN FAMILY ROOM AND IN BEDROOM ARE NOT INCLUDED. THERE ARE A FEW OTHER PERSONAL ITEMS THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED. NOT ONLY DO YOU GET TO ENJOY THE IMMENITIES OF LA SOLANA BUT YOU HAVE ACCESS TO THE SUN CITY GRAND FACILITIES. BUYER TO VERIFY ALL MEASUREMENTS.

19. 2008-01-28
    historical 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC LOCATION. LOCATED ON THE 3RD FLOOR WITH A MAGNIFICANT VIEW OF THE POOL, MOUNTAINS AND GREEN COURT YARD. FRESHLY PAINTED INSIDE AND SPOTLESS. YOU WILL NOT BE DISAPPOINTED. DESIGNER FURNITURE LESS THAN 5 MONTHS OLD. FURNITURE CAN BE PURCHASED OUTSIDE OF ESCROW. TELEVISIONS IN FAMILY ROOM AND IN BEDROOM ARE NOT INCLUDED. THERE ARE A FEW OTHER PERSONAL ITEMS THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED. NOT ONLY DO YOU GET TO ENJOY THE IMMENITIES OF LA SOLANA BUT YOU HAVE ACCESS TO THE SUN CITY GRAND FACILITIES. BUYER TO VERIFY ALL MEASUREMENTS.

20. 2007-07-26
    listed $143,000 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC LOCATION. LOCATED ON THE 3RD FLOOR WITH A MAGNIFICANT VIEW OF THE POOL, MOUNTAINS AND GREEN COURT YARD. FRESHLY PAINTED INSIDE AND SPOTLESS. YOU WILL NOT BE DISAPPOINTED. DESIGNER FURNITURE LESS THAN 5 MONTHS OLD. FURNITURE CAN BE PURCHASED OUTSIDE OF ESCROW. TELEVISIONS IN FAMILY ROOM AND IN BEDROOM ARE NOT INCLUDED. THERE ARE A FEW OTHER PERSONAL ITEMS THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED. NOT ONLY DO YOU GET TO ENJOY THE IMMENITIES OF LA SOLANA BUT YOU HAVE ACCESS TO THE SUN CITY GRAND FACILITIES. BUYER TO VERIFY ALL MEASUREMENTS.

21. 2007-02-26
    soldstatus $135,000
22. 2007-02-07
    soldstatus $135,000
23. 2007-01-09
    historical
24. 2006-11-13
    listed $143,900
25. 2004-05-05
    soldstatus $92,510
26. 2004-01-22
    historical
27. 2004-01-22
    listed $92,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $853 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,319 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$466/yr (+$39/mo · 54.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$853
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − HOA: −$6,312
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,233
• After-tax cash flow: $-665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+149.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $229,900 ARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $205,500 Public Records
• 2008-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2008-03-28 Sold (MLS) $132,000 ARMLS
• 2008-01-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-07-26 Listed $143,000 ARMLS
• 2007-02-26 Sold (MLS) $135,000 ARMLS
• 2007-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2007-01-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-11-13 Listed $143,900 ARMLS
• 2004-05-05 Sold (MLS) $92,510 ARMLS
• 2004-01-22 Listed $92,300 ARMLS
• 2004-01-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $853 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.