3223 Aspinwall Rd NW · Olympia, WA 98502

$640,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Other public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1945 0.46 ac lot $1067/sqft · 34% below area Est $964k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.5/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Saltwater views. Stunning sunsets. And 50 feet of prime Puget Sound frontage that's all yours. This 600 SF waterfront cabin on nearly half an acre is the kind of place people dream about. Watch the tides roll in from your living room or step out onto the deck and soak in those golden hour skies over the Sound. With direct shoreline access, you can drop a kayak, take a swim, cast a line, or gather up some clams and oysters for dinner. A generous yard gives you room to entertain, let the pets roam, and soak in the natural surroundings that make this property feel like its own little world. And yes, there's even room to park your RV. Inside, upgraded windows, laminate flooring, a classic vinta

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Generous yard
• Upgraded windows

Tags

• PRIME PUGET SOUND FRONTAGE
• DIRECT SHORELINE ACCESS
• GENEROUS YARD
• UPGRADED WINDOWS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• VINTAGE STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing available: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; RV parking
• Security: Partially fenced yard
• Utilities: Electric power; Individual private well water; Septic tank sewer; PSE power company
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Main-level entry; Built on lot
• Construction: Cement plank and wood construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete foundation; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Cement plank siding; Wood products exterior; Deck; Partially fenced; RV parking; Fruit trees on property; On saltwater/sea/sound waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (main level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heat; Wood stove / free-standing stove; Wall furnace; Insert for cooling
• Interior features: Dining room; Fireplace (wood burning); Wired for generator; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $640k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-34k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (79.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (73.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (79.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.0% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $68k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $64k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$110k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($621k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,391 (79.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 79% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.26% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.76%
• DSCR: 0.17
• GRM: 31.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $963,688
• List price: $640,000
• Delta: -33.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $166,066
• Equity at exit: $576,563

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $633,000
• Equity at exit: $1,243,379

Cash invested: $179,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 31.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,356
• Tax from tax record: −$506 /mo · $6,078/yr
• Insurance: −$267
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-2,868

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,311

Max offer price $133,391

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $160,000
• Closing costs: $19,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $640,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $640,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $640,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $640,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $640,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $640,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $640,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $640,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $640,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $640,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $640,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $640,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $640,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $640,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $640,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $640,000 Active
17. 2025-11-24
    soldstatus $595,000 Closed
18. 2025-11-24
    soldstatus $595,000
19. 2025-11-03
    status Pending
20. 2025-08-21
    price $650,000
21. 2025-07-07
    listed $685,000 Active
22. 2020-03-31
    soldstatus $450,000 Sold
23. 2020-03-31
    soldstatus $450,000
24. 2020-03-20
    status Pending
25. 2020-03-03
    status Pending Inspection
26. 2020-02-28
    listed $450,000 Active
27. 2016-09-09
    soldstatus $279,000 Sold
28. 2016-09-07
    soldstatus $279,000
29. 2016-07-22
    status Pending
30. 2016-06-19
    status Pending Inspection
31. 2016-06-16
    status Active
32. 2016-06-14
    historical
33. 2016-06-14
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,078 · $506/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,272 · $523/mo
• Expected delta: +$194/yr (+$16/mo · 3.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,850
• − Property taxes: −$6,078
• − Insurance: −$3,998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$18,618
• Taxable loss: −$47,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,424
• After-tax cash flow: $-22,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+114.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $640,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $595,000 Public Records
• 2025-11-24 Sold (MLS) $595,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $650,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-07 Listed $685,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-31 Sold (MLS) $450,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-28 Listed $450,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-09 Sold (MLS) $279,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $279,000 Public Records
• 2016-07-22 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-16 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-14 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-14 Listed $299,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,078 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.