12327 Granite Woods Ct · Atascocita, TX 77346

$289,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2002 7,374 sqft lot Est $343k · 15% under $37/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great cul-de-sac home on a supersized lot with no back neighbor. The home looks ?? new with all the updates done, Roof 2019, new carpet, tile, paint, light fixtures & fans, kitchen counters & backsplash, kitchen sink & faucet, new appliances (including the new Frig), bathroom updates as well. The Seller is also replacing all the old fence in the back yard. Get a new home feel without the new home price?? . You have hit the jackpot with this find. You can’t go wrong with making this your new home. Close to shopping and dining in Atascocita as well as quick access Beltway 8 and Highway 59. Call for a showing today.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Formal dining
• Breakfast room

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• HUGE BACKYARD
• GAS FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST ROOM
• FORMAL DINING
• GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association pool
• HOA & community: Association: CIA Services; Annual association fee of $440 (includes recreation facilities); Community pool; Curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Driveway; Garage with garage door opener
• Security: Leased security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2002; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Full ownership
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Fence (back yard); Porch; Patio; Private yard; Cleared lot; Located on a cul-de-sac; Subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (16 x 12); Bedrooms on second level: 12 x 10; 12 x 11; Bedroom on first level (11 x 11); Total rooms: 10; Bedrooms possible: 4
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Soaking tub; Tub with shower; Walk-in pantry; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Gas fireplace; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room on second level (8 x 6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Atascocita Springs El (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 989 students, 37% FRL); Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,844 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.52%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $342,912
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12223 English Brook Cir	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,397 (-1%)	1mo	$239,500	$100	90
12419 Adams Ridge Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,437 (+0%)	1mo	$320,000	$131	79
4954 Winding Timbers Cir	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,319 (-5%)	0mo	$277,600	$120	69
4939 Falcon Forest Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,639 (+8%)	3mo	$210,000	$80	68
17914 June Forest Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,384 (-2%)	1mo	$289,500	$121	63
5022 Drew Forest Ln	0.38mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,667 (+10%)	3mo	$275,000	$103	59
17702 Trail Mountain Ct	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,729 (+12%)	1mo	$385,000	$141	57
12734 Crater Lake Ct	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,630 (+8%)	3mo	$400,000	$152	53
18218 Outback Lakes Trl	0.60mi	4/3.5	2,753 (+13%)	0mo	$395,000	$143	46
18303 Glacier Bay Ct	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,673 (+10%)	3mo	$395,000	$148	43
12115 Pinelands Park Ln	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,772 (+14%)	2mo	$450,000	$162	40
12734 Rock Creek Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,124 (-13%)	3mo	$339,900	$160	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-43,551
• Equity at exit: $70,617

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-60,894
• Equity at exit: $74,698

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,591 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$607 /mo · $7,284/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,892

Max offer price $247,844

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-156	+0% $-238	+5% $-320	+10% $-402
Rent	-10% $-443	-5% $-340	+0% $-238	+5% $-136	+10% $-33
Rate	-1.0pp $-92	-0.5pp $-164	base $-238	+0.5pp $-313	+1.0pp $-390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	13d	1	0.23mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	6d	1	0.32mi
18222 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3265	$2,681	$0.82	0d	1	0.37mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	45d	1	0.50mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,306	$1.06	0d	1	0.63mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,156	$0.92	0d	1	0.65mi
18406 S Roaring River Ct Humble, TX	4.0	4.0	3319	$3,600	$1.08	45d	1	0.68mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,231	$0.95	0d	1	0.75mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	25d	1	0.76mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	25d	1	0.76mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	45d	1	0.93mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	25d	1	1.17mi
4110 Forest Rain Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2845	$2,370	$0.83	25d	1	1.23mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	45d	1	1.26mi
7002 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,869	$1.08	16d	1	1.35mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	45d	1	1.40mi
3818 Oaktrace Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	45d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 695-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $289,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,284 · $607/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,284 · $607/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$7,284
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,487
• − Management: −$2,487
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$7,731
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,856
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+28.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2021-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-03-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-01 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2021-02-27 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2021-02-26 Listed $224,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,284 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.