23810 Marbella Bay Rd #103 · Estero, FL 34135

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,103 sqft · Condo public records · 108 Days on market

Built 2003 $817/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this light and airy 1st-floor condominium featuring 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a versatile open den/flex space ideal for a home office, reading nook, or extra guest area! Designed for comfort and easy living, it showcases soothing pastel tones, abundant natural light, and serene eastern views of the calming lake. Start your mornings on the private screened-in lanai, enjoying peaceful sunrises and tranquil water views with your coffee in hand. The open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between living, dining, and kitchen areas, making the home feel spacious and inviting. Tile flooring runs throughout the main living areas for effortless maintenance, while luxury vinyl wood-

Key facts

• Gated community
• Lake views
• Open den flex space

Tags

• OPEN DEN FLEX SPACE
• PRIVATE SCREENED LANAI
• LAKE VIEWS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GATED COMMUNITY
• FIVE SWIMMING POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Condo fee reported as $2,450 (quarterly)
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with professional management; Quarterly condo fee; HOA maintenance covers cable, insurance, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, master association fee, pest control (exterior), repairs, reserves, security, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal and water; Community amenities include community pool and spa, exercise room, tennis and pickleball courts, basketball, beach club access, lakefront beach, fishing pier, BBQ/picnic area, library, sauna, community room, sidewalks and streetlights, bike and jog path, underground utilities; Total annual recurring HOA fees listed as $9,800 and total one-time fees listed as $150

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned parking space; Detached 1-car carport
• Security: Gated community; Community security included in maintenance
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential carriage/coach unit in a low-rise (1-3) building; Built in 2003; Rear exposure to the east; Located in Lighthouse Bay at The Brooks
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Metal roof; Single hung and sliding windows; Gated community; Lakefront view; Irrigation with reclaimed water

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/Freezer; Self-cleaning oven
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus a den (study)
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire and high-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Turnkey furnished; Split bedroom floor plan; Breakfast bar; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in residence; Laundry in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $763 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $272k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 835 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,514/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 976% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13491% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $299k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.94%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-12,565
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,621
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34135

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 835
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,514 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,524/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$817
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$948
• Net cashflow: $763

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,548

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $932	-5% $848	+0% $763	+5% $678	+10% $594
Rent	-10% $406	-5% $585	+0% $763	+5% $941	+10% $1,120
Rate	-1.0pp $914	-0.5pp $839	base $763	+0.5pp $685	+1.0pp $607

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23810 Marbella Bay Rd #102 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$5,000	$4.53	24d	1	0.02mi
23821 Marbella Bay Rd Ofc Season Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$2,500	$1.95	24d	1	0.04mi
23821 Marbella Bay Rd #102 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,750	$4.50	24d	1	0.04mi
23810 Costa del Sol Rd #203 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1276	$2,400	$1.88	17d	1	0.14mi
10911 Santa Margherita Rd #102 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$2,800	$2.19	24d	1	0.21mi
10910 Santa Margherita Rd #102 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$2,200	$1.72	24d	1	0.23mi
9030 Spring Run Blvd #508 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1333	$6,500	$4.88	24d	1	1.01mi
10041 Maddox Ln #203 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$5,000	$4.62	24d	1	1.24mi
10041 Maddox Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1213	$5,000	$4.12	24d	1	1.24mi
10030 Maddox Ln #206 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1327	$2,150	$1.62	22d	1	1.26mi
23591 Sandycreek Ter #1006 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1209	$6,000	$4.96	24d	1	1.26mi
23601 Sandycreek Ter #903 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$6,000	$4.82	24d	1	1.26mi
23526 Sandycreek Ter #304 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$6,500	$4.75	24d	1	1.28mi
10020 Maddox Ln #213 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,350	$1.92	22d	1	1.28mi
10010 Maddox Ln #318 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,550	$1.27	24d	1	1.31mi
10000 Maddox Ln #125 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1129	$4,000	$3.54	24d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $817 · $9,804/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-05-07
    listed $2,200
12. 2026-05-07
    historical $2,200
13. 2026-05-05
    listed $2,200
14. 2026-03-01
    listed $299,000 Active
15. 2008-12-24
    soldstatus $170,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,524 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,524 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,524
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,334
• − Management: −$4,334
• − HOA: −$9,804
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $5,233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $7,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,252
• Household income: $91,380
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 976.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Native American 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.86%
• Current HPI: 243.4153
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed for Rent $2,200 FGCMLS
• 2026-05-07 Rental Removed $2,200 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed for Rent $2,200 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $299,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2008-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,524 · -11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.