3900 Morgan Ford Rd · Sandy Level, VA 24148

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1965 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great apartment rental or small house with great value.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 126 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($854 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#437 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Henry County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #78 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.93%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-2,187
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $10,965
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24148

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $854 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $208	-5% $182	+0% $156	+5% $130	+10% $104
Rent	-10% $89	-5% $123	+0% $156	+5% $190	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $194	-0.5pp $175	base $156	+0.5pp $137	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-02-11
    listed $75,000 Active 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Great apartment rental or small house with great value.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$820
• − Management: −$820
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $724
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$174
• After-tax cash flow: $1,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101920
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,579
• Composite: 47.02/100
• National rank: #2345
• State rank: #78 of 131 in VA

Livability — Sandy Level

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #18736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,528

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,903 people
• By 2030: 44,141 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 38,687 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 33,742 · -28.1%
• By 2075: 25,720 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 19,868 · -57.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.3% · R 66.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.33%
• Current HPI: 170.9641
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $75,000 MHPCAR

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $112 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.