1507 Balsam Ln · Crandall, TX 75114

$317,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,210 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot Est $325k · at est. $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home features a modern, low-maintenance layout, with an open-concept floorplan and inviting covered patio perfect for entertaining. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, with a convenient flex space near the main living area ready to be used as a studio or home office. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private corner at the back of the home.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $317,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Hendrix floor plan; Single-family residence (new construction)
• Construction: New construction (spec home)
• Exterior features: Spec home in a new construction community; Located at 1507 Balsam Ln, Crandall, TX

Interior

• Kitchen: Hendrix plan kitchen (standard features per new construction spec)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (per plan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (standard new construction)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $318k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-44/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W A Martin El (math 41% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 71% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 41% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 802 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $283,787 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $324,870
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1103 Sky Forest Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,952 (-12%)	1mo	$288,049	$148	68
1557 Coldwater Way	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,059 (-7%)	0mo	$308,630	$150	67
1554 Coldwater Way	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,059 (-7%)	2mo	$294,130	$143	64
1552 Coldwater Way	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,363 (+7%)	2mo	$318,687	$135	64
1550 Coldwater Way	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,059 (-7%)	1mo	$305,594	$148	58
3514 Fox Valley Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,062 (-7%)	1mo	$286,999	$139	56
2142 Tule Way	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,378 (+8%)	1mo	$313,370	$132	50
3529 Fox Valley Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,448 (+11%)	1mo	$310,999	$127	48
2146 Tule Way	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,992 (-10%)	2mo	$292,890	$147	46
3506 Fox Valley Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,902 (-14%)	2mo	$263,699	$139	45
2323 Buffalo Bayou Way	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,962 (-11%)	2mo	$293,740	$150	43
2313 Buffalo Bayou Way	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,962 (-11%)	2mo	$293,740	$150	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-51,693
• Equity at exit: $47,415

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-45,023
• Equity at exit: $27,495

Cash invested: $89,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 802
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,838 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$397 /mo · $4,770/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $317,463

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $106	+0% $-4	+5% $-114	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-116	+0% $-4	+5% $108	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $77	base $-4	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,500
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3011 Temple Gate Ct Crandall, TX	5.0	3.0	2730	$3,300	$1.21	0d	1	1.30mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	45d	1	1.33mi
4101 Valley Mills Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,550	$1.12	0d	1	1.35mi
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,600	$1.47	45d	1	1.42mi
3750 Honey Daisy Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	3.5	2885	$2,750	$0.95	12d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on marketlisting id $317,999 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $317,999 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $317,999 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $317,999 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $317,999 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $317,999 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $317,999 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 381-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   listed $317,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,813
• − Property taxes: −$4,770
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,724
• − Management: −$2,724
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$5,394
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,295
• After-tax cash flow: $1,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home features a modern, low-maintenance layout with an open-concept floorplan and inviting covered patio. The home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crandall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #10022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B