Cibola Plan · Crosby, TX 77532

$189,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 313 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner's suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Low hoa fees
• Prime location
• Walking trails

Tags

• NEW SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
• LOW HOA FEES
• WALKING TRAILS
• PRIME LOCATION
• PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING CENTERS

🏗️ New construction. The $189,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $246,543.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $167,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,543
• List price: $189,990
• Delta: -22.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1762 Green Warbler Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (+0%)	1mo	$249,990	$162	84
1726 Green Warbler Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,587 (+3%)	1mo	$224,990	$142	81
20135 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$175,990	$115	79
20102 White Dove Trl	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,607 (+5%)	1mo	$211,990	$132	69
1730 West Stroker Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (-13%)	0mo	$212,990	$160	67
20130 White Dove Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-8%)	0mo	$201,990	$143	60
20106 White Dove Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-8%)	1mo	$203,990	$144	59
20074 White Dove Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-8%)	1mo	$207,990	$147	59
20134 Green Mallard St	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	2mo	$162,440	$119	57
20127 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	2mo	$181,990	$134	56
20042 White Dove Trl	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-8%)	2mo	$172,540	$122	56
20118 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	0mo	$174,990	$129	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-29,937
• Equity at exit: $36,760

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-22,919
• Equity at exit: $21,317

Cash invested: $69,032 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.9 mo (34%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $202,991 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 25 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1446
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,293
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$308 /mo · $3,698/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,157

Max offer price $246,543

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $299	+0% $214	+5% $129	+10% $44
Rent	-10% $22	-5% $118	+0% $214	+5% $310	+10% $406
Rate	-1.0pp $338	-0.5pp $277	base $214	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,636
• Closing costs: $7,396
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,895	$1.34	4d	1	0.20mi
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	62d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $189,990 Active 313 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $189,990 Active 311 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $189,990 Active 310 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $189,990 Active 309 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $189,990 Active 308 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $189,990 Active 305 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $189,990 Active 304 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $189,990 Active 303 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $189,990 Active 302 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $189,990 Active 300 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $189,990 Active 298 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $189,990 Active 297 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $189,990 Active 296 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $189,990 Active 295 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $189,990 Active 294 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $189,990 Active 292 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $189,990 Active 291 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $189,990 Active 290 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $189,990 Active 289 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $197,990 Active 287 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $197,990 Active 286 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $197,990 Active 285 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $197,990 Active 284 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $197,990 Active 283 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $197,990 Active 281 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $197,990 Active 280 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $197,990 Active 279 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $197,990 Active 278 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $197,990 Active 277 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $197,990 Active 276 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $197,990 Active 275 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $197,990 Active 274 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $197,990 Active 273 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $197,990 Active 272 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $197,990 Active 271 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $197,990 Active 268 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $197,990 Active 266 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $197,990 Active 265 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $209,990 Active 262 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $209,990 Active 261 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $209,990 Active 260 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $209,990 Active 259 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $209,990 Active 257 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $209,990 Active 253 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,990 Active 252 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,990 Active 251 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,990 Active 248 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,990 Active 246 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,990 Active 245 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,990 Active 244 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,810
• − Property taxes: −$3,698
• − Insurance: −$1,233
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,331
• − Management: −$2,331
• − Depreciation: −$7,172
• Taxable loss: −$1,442
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$346
• After-tax cash flow: $2,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,675–$23,025 screening

This two-story home features a modern open floorplan with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality to the kitchen. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-29 Listed $209,990 Zillow