419 Caroline St · Rochester, NY 14620

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,417 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1890 3,300 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention Investors, Flippers, & Handy Owner-Occupants! Bring your vision and tools to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-full-bath classic colonial located on a neighborhood street in one of Rochester's most resilient rental and resale markets. Built in 1890, this property offers over 2,400 square feet of living space across three levels, providing an incredible canvas for a high-return renovation or a stellar addition to your portfolio. The main floor features an eat-in kitchen, a full bathroom, and distinct living spaces boasting some original hardwood floors just waiting to be refinished. Up on the second floor, you'll find three bedrooms and a second full bath, while the third floor ho

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchen
• 3,300 sq ft lot
• Built 1890

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PRIVATE FOURTH BEDROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Wood siding; Copper plumbing; Poured foundation; Attic/crawl hatchway(s) insulated; Built previously (year built: existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Partial fencing; Private yard; Shed(s)/storage; Covered porch; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms including living areas and laundry (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Attic fan for cooling
• Interior features: Attic; Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Natural woodwork
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $934 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,421/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 2013% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $150k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.68%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $384,303
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
275 Caroline St	0.16mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,396 (-1%)	1mo	$275,000	$115	85
37 Highland Pkwy	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,250 (-7%)	0mo	$355,000	$158	71
268 Rockingham St	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,268 (-6%)	10mo	$370,000	$163	68
31 Highland Pkwy	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,110 (-13%)	0mo	$463,000	$219	61
83 Shepard St	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,507 (+4%)	6mo	$390,000	$156	61
77 Highland Pkwy	0.36mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,613 (+8%)	7mo	$420,000	$161	57
23 Parkwood Ave	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,406 (-0%)	11mo	$430,000	$179	57
76 Crosman	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,277 (-6%)	2mo	$475,000	$209	55
34 Shepard St	0.66mi	4/1.5	2,347 (-3%)	10mo	$280,000	$119	54
370 Barrington St	0.73mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,492 (+3%)	2mo	$395,000	$159	52
48 Rosedale St	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,190 (-9%)	10mo	$185,000	$84	46
151 Cypress St	0.69mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,208 (-9%)	7mo	$226,000	$102	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $30,859
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $86,405
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14620

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,421 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,561/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $934

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,239

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,019	-5% $976	+0% $934	+5% $891	+10% $849
Rent	-10% $742	-5% $838	+0% $934	+5% $1,029	+10% $1,125
Rate	-1.0pp $1,009	-0.5pp $972	base $934	+0.5pp $895	+1.0pp $855

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 Meigs St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1577	$1,650	$1.05	44d	1	0.44mi
42 Wilcox St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	2184	$1,695	$0.78	45d	1	0.48mi
34 Shepard St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	2347	$800	$0.34	44d	1	0.65mi
95 Parkwood Ave Rochester, NY	5.0	2.5	2000	$3,900	$1.95	12d	1	0.72mi
106 Gregory St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1680	$1,995	$1.19	24d	1	0.75mi
188 Laney Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1604	$2,350	$1.47	3d	1	0.93mi
256 Oxford St Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	2050	$3,000	$1.46	15d	1	0.99mi
214 Culver Rd Apt 2 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1700	$2,400	$1.41	15d	1	1.25mi
57 Calumet St Rochester, NY	3.0	3.0	2500	$2,250	$0.90	15d	1	1.35mi
260 E Main St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$2,999	$2.62	4d	14	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 695-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,561 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,048 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$487/yr (+$41/mo · 31.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,561
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,325
• − Management: −$2,325
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $9,332
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,240
• After-tax cash flow: $8,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 23,769
• Household income: $61,783
• Rent vs Own: 70.8% rent · 29.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2013.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 12% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Chinese 4% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.77%
• Current HPI: 337.6917
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.20%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $150,000 UNYREIS
• 2023-06-15 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2023-05-30 Listed $155,000 UNYREIS
• 2009-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,561 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.