3715 Rawley St · Houston, TX 77020

$285,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 194 Days on market

Built 1931 3,550 sqft lot $188/sqft · at area comps Est $280k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to purchase a beautifully updated home on a prime interior lot for a great price. Updates include new roof(2020), soft close cabinets, Calcutta Quartz countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, luxury vinyl plank floors on first floor, and fixtures throughout. Hurry, this area is rapidly appreciating with newer construction in the area. Hurry, priced to sell!

Key facts

• Prime interior lot
• Soft close cabinets
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• PRIME INTERIOR LOT
• NEW ROOF
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• CALCUTTA QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,230/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 969% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,992 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.86%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,342
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: 1.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1811 Pannell St Unit C	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (-9%)	7mo	$275,000	$199	70
2004 Worms St	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	1mo	$259,000	$193	67
3616 Market St	0.46mi	3/3.0	1,607 (+6%)	2mo	$325,000	$202	61
2710 Jensen Creek Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,508 (-1%)	0mo	$299,900	$199	61
3109 Stonewall St	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,645 (+8%)	3mo	$349,900	$213	56
2413 Brewster St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (-6%)	10mo	$100,000	$70	53
3109 Orange St	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,645 (+8%)	9mo	$349,900	$213	53
2214 Brackenridge St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-9%)	9mo	$205,000	$148	50
3202 Quitman St	0.42mi	3/3.5	1,700 (+12%)	3mo	$355,000	$209	50
4809 Nichols St	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,581 (+4%)	9mo	$285,000	$180	49
2302 Wipprecht St	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,636 (+8%)	6mo	$299,000	$183	47
2207 Dan St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,736 (+14%)	5mo	$339,000	$195	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $137,612
• Equity at exit: $256,751

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $427,816
• Equity at exit: $553,692

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$472 /mo · $5,660/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,639

Max offer price $227,873

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	43d	1	0.23mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	43d	1	0.32mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	43d	1	0.34mi
4300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	43d	1	0.42mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	7d	1	0.52mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	43d	1	0.52mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	20d	1	0.65mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	20d	1	0.65mi
1222 Upton St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2055	$2,600	$1.27	43d	1	0.67mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	43d	1	0.68mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	7d	1	0.68mi
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	21d	1	0.76mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	43d	1	0.78mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	43d	1	0.80mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	43d	1	0.82mi
611 Sydnor St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2157	$2,400	$1.11	43d	1	0.85mi
2905 Baer St Unit 1047953P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1991	$3,094	$1.55	5d	1	0.87mi
5217 Noble St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,750	$1.45	43d	1	0.92mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	7d	1	0.93mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,237	$3.00	2d	1	1.12mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	43d	1	1.12mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	43d	1	1.22mi
1550 Leona St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,905	$2.28	1d	19	1.23mi
1550 Leona St Unit 1587 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,942	$1.72	43d	1	1.28mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,593	$1.59	5d	1	1.30mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	970	$3,420	$3.52	1d	69	1.31mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$3,094	$3.55	20d	16	1.31mi
1250 Leona St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,990	$2.25	1d	16	1.37mi
650 McKee St Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,082	$1.83	2d	1	1.41mi
650 McKee St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,114	$1.86	10d	1	1.41mi
650 McKee St Unit 683 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,125	$1.87	43d	1	1.41mi
2706 Cochran St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1791	$2,700	$1.51	19d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $285,000 Active 180 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 176 DOM
12. 2025-12-15
    price $285,000 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Rare opportunity to purchase a beautifully updated home on a prime interior lot for a great price. Updates include new roof(2020), soft close cabinets, Calcutta Quartz countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, luxury vinyl plank floors on first floor, and fixtures throughout. Hurry, this area is rapidly appreciating with newer construction in the area. Hurry, priced to sell!

13. 2025-12-06
    listed $299,000 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Rare opportunity to purchase a beautifully updated home on a prime interior lot for a great price. Updates include new roof(2020), soft close cabinets, Calcutta Quartz countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, luxury vinyl plank floors on first floor, and fixtures throughout. Hurry, this area is rapidly appreciating with newer construction in the area. Hurry, priced to sell!

14. 2016-02-29
    soldstatus
15. 2014-07-03
    soldstatus
16. 1994-02-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,660 · $472/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,660 · $472/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$5,660
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,141
• − Management: −$2,141
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$8,863
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,127
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-06 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2016-02-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+16.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,660 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.