2111 State Route 165 · East Worcester, NY 12043

$51,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1935 1.00 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Auction property on HUBZU. Charming 1935 Old-Style 3-bedroom home on a scenic 1-acre rural lot in the Cobleskill-Richmondville School District. Features include 1,240 sq ft, a full basement, private well and septic, and a detached 1-car garage. A great opportunity to customize a classic home in a peaceful country setting.

Key facts

• Scenic rural lot
• Private well
• Full basement

Tags

• SCENIC RURAL LOT
• FULL BASEMENT
• PRIVATE WELL
• DETACHED GARAGE
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING

🔨 Auction listing. The $51,000 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $200,000 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $51k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-378 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $51k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cobleskill-Richmondville Central School District (town): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Schoharie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (9.9% local appreciation)).
• Schoharie County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.9% of price; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.10%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,000
• List price: $51,000
• Delta: -74.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $82,892
• Equity at exit: $178,076

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $262,552
• Equity at exit: $381,814

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12043

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $145,295

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-240	-5% $-309	+0% $-378	+5% $-447	+10% $-516
Rent	-10% $-478	-5% $-428	+0% $-378	+5% $-328	+10% $-278
Rate	-1.0pp $-277	-0.5pp $-327	base $-378	+0.5pp $-430	+1.0pp $-483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $51,000 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-04-22
   price $51,000 324-char remark

   Show marketing remark (324 chars)

   Auction property on HUBZU. Charming 1935 Old-Style 3-bedroom home on a scenic 1-acre rural lot in the Cobleskill-Richmondville School District. Features include 1,240 sq ft, a full basement, private well and septic, and a detached 1-car garage. A great opportunity to customize a classic home in a peaceful country setting.

3. 2026-03-27
   price $53,146 324-char remark

   Show marketing remark (324 chars)

   Auction property on HUBZU. Charming 1935 Old-Style 3-bedroom home on a scenic 1-acre rural lot in the Cobleskill-Richmondville School District. Features include 1,240 sq ft, a full basement, private well and septic, and a detached 1-car garage. A great opportunity to customize a classic home in a peaceful country setting.

4. 2026-02-24
   price $57,767 324-char remark

   Show marketing remark (324 chars)

   Auction property on HUBZU. Charming 1935 Old-Style 3-bedroom home on a scenic 1-acre rural lot in the Cobleskill-Richmondville School District. Features include 1,240 sq ft, a full basement, private well and septic, and a detached 1-car garage. A great opportunity to customize a classic home in a peaceful country setting.

5. 2026-01-27
   price $62,790 324-char remark

   Show marketing remark (324 chars)

   Auction property on HUBZU. Charming 1935 Old-Style 3-bedroom home on a scenic 1-acre rural lot in the Cobleskill-Richmondville School District. Features include 1,240 sq ft, a full basement, private well and septic, and a detached 1-car garage. A great opportunity to customize a classic home in a peaceful country setting.

6. 2025-12-05
   listed $68,250 Active 324-char remark

   Show marketing remark (324 chars)

   Auction property on HUBZU. Charming 1935 Old-Style 3-bedroom home on a scenic 1-acre rural lot in the Cobleskill-Richmondville School District. Features include 1,240 sq ft, a full basement, private well and septic, and a detached 1-car garage. A great opportunity to customize a classic home in a peaceful country setting.

7. 2012-03-15
   historical
8. 2011-10-14
   listed $67,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$8,210
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,970
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cobleskill-Richmondville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600010
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,555
• Composite: 44.83/100
• National rank: #2734
• State rank: #336 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Worcester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,883

Population outlook (Schoharie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,080 people
• By 2030: 27,417 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 23,835 · -18.0%
• By 2050: 20,482 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 14,323 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 9,636 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schoharie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.5) · D 34.7% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.3pp · 2024: -30.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.5 2020: R+29.0 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+14.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.86%
• Current HPI: 310.2889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-24.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $51,000 Global MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $53,146 Global MLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $57,767 Global MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $62,790 Global MLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $68,250 Global MLS
• 2012-03-15 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2011-10-14 Listed $67,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,081 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.