3658 Copper Willow · Bulverde, TX 78163

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $188/sqft · 8% below area Est $342k · 8% under $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Reduced to $315,000. Welcome to the sought-after Copper Canyon master-planned community, where this immaculately maintained D.R. Horton 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,672 square feet of like-new living space. Built in 2023, this home feels practically brand new, and the transferable builder warranty provides added peace of mind. Designed with both comfort and style in mind, the home features gas cooking and gas heating, granite countertops, a large kitchen island, tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Residents of Copper Canyon enjoy exceptional neighborhood amenities including a community pool, park, sports courts, and walking trails. Conveniently located with easy access to Hwy 281, plus nearby schools, shopping, and dining just minutes away. Previous contract terminated due to buyer's change of plans.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Gas cooking
• Gas heating

Tags

• GAS COOKING
• GAS HEATING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-301 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.6% in Bulverde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#862 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 540 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $248,539 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.09%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,461
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -8.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3855 Rusted Copper	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,651 (-1%)	10mo	$346,950	$210	84
3847 Rusted Copper	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,651 (-1%)	11mo	$357,000	$216	82
29636 Winter Copper	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,660 (-1%)	6mo	$324,900	$196	70
29416 Autumn Copper	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,703 (+2%)	8mo	$346,999	$204	70
29624 Copper Xing	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,660 (-1%)	2mo	$319,000	$192	69
3828 Rusted Copper	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-14%)	11mo	$341,950	$237	60
3629 Copper Riv	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,901 (+14%)	5mo	$379,000	$199	60
3441 Cottonwood Cyn	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+4%)	6mo	$355,000	$204	59
3650 Copper Riv	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,901 (+14%)	7mo	$378,000	$199	57
29425 Sierra Copper	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,899 (+14%)	3mo	$369,000	$194	56
29632 Winter Copper	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,913 (+14%)	1mo	$355,000	$186	47
3414 Cottonwood Cyn	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,837 (+10%)	11mo	$380,000	$207	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-70,096
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-85,320
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78163

• Active inventory: 540
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,485 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$411 /mo · $4,931/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,866

Max offer price $261,902

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-211	+0% $-301	+5% $-390	+10% $-479
Rent	-10% $-497	-5% $-399	+0% $-301	+5% $-202	+10% $-104
Rate	-1.0pp $-142	-0.5pp $-220	base $-301	+0.5pp $-382	+1.0pp $-465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3871 Copper Riv Bulverde, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,425	$1.42	17d	1	0.09mi
3602 Copper Willow Bulverde, TX	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,190	$1.47	24d	1	0.12mi
3590 Copper Willow Bulverde, TX	3.0	2.5	2230	$2,425	$1.09	44d	1	0.15mi
3822 Copper Riv Bulverde, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,450	$1.44	22d	1	0.18mi
29587 Copper Gate Bulverde, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,350	$1.26	15d	1	0.24mi
29576 Dusty Copper Bulverde, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,350	$1.37	3d	1	0.28mi
29517 Sierra Copper Bulverde, TX	4.0	2.0	1383	$2,550	$1.84	18d	1	0.31mi
3518 Copper Riv Bulverde, TX	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,300	$1.39	45d	1	0.39mi
3514 Copper Riv Bulverde, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,300	$1.35	44d	1	0.39mi
29517 Spring Copper Bulverde, TX	4.0	2.0	1913	$2,250	$1.18	2d	1	0.43mi
3417 Copper Acres Bulverde, TX	4.0	2.0	1965	$2,500	$1.27	44d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $315,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $315,000 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Price Reduced to $315,000. Welcome to the sought-after Copper Canyon master-planned community, where this immaculately maintained D.R. Horton 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,672 square feet of like-new living space. Built in 2023, this home feels practically brand new, and the transferable builder warranty provides added peace of mind. Designed with both comfort and style in mind, the home features gas cooking and gas heating, granite countertops, a large kitchen island, tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Residents of Copper Canyon enjoy exceptional neighborhood amenities including a community pool, park, sports courts, and walking trails. Conveniently located with easy access to Hwy 281, plus nearby schools, shopping, and dining just minutes away. Previous contract terminated due to buyer's change of plans.

15. 2026-05-15
    status Back on Market 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Price Reduced to $315,000. Welcome to the sought-after Copper Canyon master-planned community, where this immaculately maintained D.R. Horton 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,672 square feet of like-new living space. Built in 2023, this home feels practically brand new, and the transferable builder warranty provides added peace of mind. Designed with both comfort and style in mind, the home features gas cooking and gas heating, granite countertops, a large kitchen island, tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Residents of Copper Canyon enjoy exceptional neighborhood amenities including a community pool, park, sports courts, and walking trails. Conveniently located with easy access to Hwy 281, plus nearby schools, shopping, and dining just minutes away. Previous contract terminated due to buyer's change of plans.

16. 2026-05-15
    historical Active Option 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Price Reduced to $315,000. Welcome to the sought-after Copper Canyon master-planned community, where this immaculately maintained D.R. Horton 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,672 square feet of like-new living space. Built in 2023, this home feels practically brand new, and the transferable builder warranty provides added peace of mind. Designed with both comfort and style in mind, the home features gas cooking and gas heating, granite countertops, a large kitchen island, tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Residents of Copper Canyon enjoy exceptional neighborhood amenities including a community pool, park, sports courts, and walking trails. Conveniently located with easy access to Hwy 281, plus nearby schools, shopping, and dining just minutes away. Previous contract terminated due to buyer's change of plans.

17. 2026-04-17
    price $325,000 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Price Reduced to $315,000. Welcome to the sought-after Copper Canyon master-planned community, where this immaculately maintained D.R. Horton 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,672 square feet of like-new living space. Built in 2023, this home feels practically brand new, and the transferable builder warranty provides added peace of mind. Designed with both comfort and style in mind, the home features gas cooking and gas heating, granite countertops, a large kitchen island, tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Residents of Copper Canyon enjoy exceptional neighborhood amenities including a community pool, park, sports courts, and walking trails. Conveniently located with easy access to Hwy 281, plus nearby schools, shopping, and dining just minutes away. Previous contract terminated due to buyer's change of plans.

18. 2026-04-01
    listed $335,000 New 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Price Reduced to $315,000. Welcome to the sought-after Copper Canyon master-planned community, where this immaculately maintained D.R. Horton 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,672 square feet of like-new living space. Built in 2023, this home feels practically brand new, and the transferable builder warranty provides added peace of mind. Designed with both comfort and style in mind, the home features gas cooking and gas heating, granite countertops, a large kitchen island, tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Residents of Copper Canyon enjoy exceptional neighborhood amenities including a community pool, park, sports courts, and walking trails. Conveniently located with easy access to Hwy 281, plus nearby schools, shopping, and dining just minutes away. Previous contract terminated due to buyer's change of plans.

19. 2026-04-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Price Reduced to $315,000. Welcome to the sought-after Copper Canyon master-planned community, where this immaculately maintained D.R. Horton 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,672 square feet of like-new living space. Built in 2023, this home feels practically brand new, and the transferable builder warranty provides added peace of mind. Designed with both comfort and style in mind, the home features gas cooking and gas heating, granite countertops, a large kitchen island, tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Residents of Copper Canyon enjoy exceptional neighborhood amenities including a community pool, park, sports courts, and walking trails. Conveniently located with easy access to Hwy 281, plus nearby schools, shopping, and dining just minutes away. Previous contract terminated due to buyer's change of plans.

20. 2026-03-20
    price $335,000
21. 2026-01-08
    listed $362,000 New
22. 2023-11-20
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2023-09-25
    status Pending
24. 2023-09-06
    price $350,500
25. 2023-08-31
    listed $349,500 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,931 · $411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,764 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: +$834/yr (+$69/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,931
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,386
• − Management: −$2,386
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$9,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,184
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves comfort
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves comfort ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bulverde

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #862
• US rank: #15528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 19,141
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,141
• Household income: $140,594
• Rent vs Own: 5.1% rent · 94.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 38.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.23%
• Current HPI: 197.178
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $315,000 LERA
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-05-15 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $325,000 LERA
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-04-01 Listed $335,000 LERA
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $335,000 LERA
• 2026-01-08 Listed $362,000 LERA
• 2023-11-20 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2023-09-25 Pending — LERA
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $350,500 LERA
• 2023-08-31 Listed $349,500 LERA

Property tax history

+87.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,931 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.