11682 Route 97 Lot 16 N · Waterford, PA 16441

$59,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1994 $435/mo HOA · 29% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sold As-Is. .Double Wide situated on a nice lot located in Rainbow Valley Park. Finishing touches needed(mainly flooring). Open floor Plan, Spacious Living & Family Room w/ Fireplace, Gracious size Dining Room, Master Suite located on one end of home and Guest Bedrooms & Bath on opposite end of Home-perfect set-up for Guests/Company.

Key facts

• Master suite
• Open floor plan
• Double wide

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING
• FIREPLACE
• GRACIOUS SIZE DINING ROOM
• MASTER SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#79 in PA, #576 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-.
• Fort Leboeuf SD (rural): math 52% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #77 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $58,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.66%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $14,304
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $44,149
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16441

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $690/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$435
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,053

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $435 · $5,220/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   price $59,900
3. 2026-02-26
   price $64,900
4. 2026-02-24
   listed $65,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $690 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$128/yr (+$11/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$690
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,463
• − Management: −$1,463
• − HOA: −$5,220
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $4,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$974
• After-tax cash flow: $3,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Leboeuf SD
• NCES district ID: 4209990
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,607
• Composite: 51.46/100
• National rank: #1725
• State rank: #77 of 539 in PA

Livability — Waterford

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,485

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.87%
• Current HPI: 245.5495
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $59,900 GEBOR
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $64,900 GEBOR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $65,900 GEBOR