1077 Paper Mill Rd · Chambersburg, PA 17202

$239,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Other · 17 Days on market

Built 1951 0.80 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Solid four-bedroom, one full bath ranch-style home situated on three parcels totaling 0.80 acres! Nestled in a peaceful setting, this property offers plenty of space both inside and out. A garage with a covered parking area, along with multiple outbuildings, adds versatility and functionality—perfect for storage, hobbies, or additional workspace. A great opportunity for comfortable living with room to grow!

Key facts

• Ranch-style home
• Three parcels
• Covered parking area

Tags

• RANCH-STYLE HOME
• THREE PARCELS
• COVERED PARKING AREA
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with additional storage (1 garage space); Detached carport (3 spaces); Total of 4 garage/parking spaces; Garage is oversized
• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Detached structure; Finished area approximately 1,300 (estimated); Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Block construction; Permanent foundation; Above-grade other structures
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level; 2 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Wood burning stove; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Chambersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#530 in PA, #4,894 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime D, employment D.
• Chambersburg Area SD (other): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #383 of 539 in PA (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Hamilton El Sch (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #815 of 1,518 statewide, top 56%, 260 students, 55% FRL); Chambersburg Area Ms - South (math 17% / reading 45%, grade F, #374 of 512 statewide, top 73%, 1,054 students, 69% FRL); Chambersburg Area Shs (math 46% / reading 10%, grade F, #362 of 437 statewide, top 83%, 2,348 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 633 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (112 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $200,570 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.52%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-33,527
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-22,496
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17202

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,698/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,898

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $153	+0% $85	+5% $17	+10% $-51
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $6	+0% $85	+5% $164	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $206	-0.5pp $146	base $85	+0.5pp $23	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Delano Dr Chambersburg, PA	3.0	2.5	1860	$2,195	$1.18	45d	1	1.30mi
1121 Progress Rd Chambersburg, PA	3.0	1.5	1376	$1,650	$1.20	45d	1	1.31mi
111 Delano Dr Chambersburg, PA	3.0	2.5	1825	$2,295	$1.26	45d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 416-char remark
2. 2026-04-25
   price $239,900 416-char remark
3. 2026-04-17
   listed $249,990 Active 416-char remark
4. 2026-04-15
   historical
5. 2026-04-06
   price $249,900
6. 2026-03-18
   listed $259,900 Active
7. 2026-03-11
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,698 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,744 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,046/yr (+$87/mo · 61.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$1,698
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$3,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$743
• After-tax cash flow: $1,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chambersburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4205550
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $52,666
• Composite: 32.17/100
• National rank: #5787
• State rank: #383 of 539 in PA

Livability — Chambersburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #530
• US rank: #4894

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 27,554
• Population (ZIP): 32,772

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,827 people
• By 2030: 158,933 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 159,060 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 155,132 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 138,545 · -12.2%
• By 2100: 112,321 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.0) · D 28.1% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.6pp · 2024: -43.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.0 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+46.5 2012: R+38.5 2008: R+32.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.86%
• Current HPI: 232.0695
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $239,900 Public Records
• 2026-06-03 Sold (MLS) $239,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $239,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $249,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $259,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+15.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,698 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.