12854 Carrington Cir #203 · Naples, FL 34105

$439,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,975 sqft · Condo · 170 Days on market

Built 2007 $751/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Centrally located gated community! Spacious 3 bedroom split floor plan offering granite kitchen with new stainless steel appliances, appealing tile backsplash, updated hardware, drawer pull-outs, pantry and spacious breakfast room and bar. Enjoy coffered ceilings, a spacious lanai overlooking the natural preserve and pond area. Master bedroom with balcony access, walk-in closet and spacious bath with garden tub, shower and dual sinks. Great room area with sliders to the screened balcony, 2 guest bedrooms and bath split from the master. This excellent floor plan offers lots of storage and an attached single garage. This pet friendly community is well-located near shopping, dining, banks and

Key facts

• Gated community
• Coffered ceilings
• Spacious lanai

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• GRANITE KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• COFFERED CEILINGS
• SPACIOUS LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a complex with 212 units (8 units in the building), 2 units per floor, single-story building; Subdivision: Carrington
• Financial info: Total annual recurring HOA fees: $9,016; Total one-time fees: $2,150
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly master HOA fee; Quarterly condo fee; Professional management; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community room, exercise room, sidewalks and streetlights; Maintenance covers cable, insurance, internet/WiFi access, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, manager, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, reserves, sewer and water; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Deeded parking; Paved driveway; Attached 1-car garage
• Security: Gated community; Unmonitored alarm system
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential carriage/coach style in a low-rise (1-3) building; Built in 2007; Rear exposure faces north; Located in the Aviano development
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Single hung and sliding windows; Impact resistant doors; Electric and manual shutters; Preserve view; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer; Breakfast bar; Breakfast room; Dining (living)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms with split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Coffered ceiling; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Volume ceiling; Great room floor plan; 5 ceiling fans; Screened balcony
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Dryer; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $615 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $440k).
• Recommended offer: $387k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Osceola Elementary School (math 78% / reading 74%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 621 students, 32% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 55% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 71% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 334 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,577/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.99%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-43,375
• Equity at exit: $65,591

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-31,534
• Equity at exit: $38,035

Cash invested: $123,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34105

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,577 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$550 /mo · $6,598/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$751
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,171
• Net cashflow: $615

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,799

Max offer price $439,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $919	-5% $767	+0% $615	+5% $463	+10% $311
Rent	-10% $174	-5% $395	+0% $615	+5% $835	+10% $1,056
Rate	-1.0pp $837	-0.5pp $727	base $615	+0.5pp $501	+1.0pp $385

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,975
• Closing costs: $13,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12839 Carrington Cir Unit 8-102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2063	$6,500	$3.15	25d	1	0.11mi
6670 Marbella Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2439	$8,400	$3.44	25d	1	0.25mi
12667 Biscayne Ct Naples, FL	4.0	3.5	2600	$8,500	$3.27	25d	1	0.31mi
6559 Monterey Pt Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2300	$9,000	$3.91	23d	1	0.35mi
6542 Marbella Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2144	$6,250	$2.92	25d	1	0.42mi
6548 Monterey Pt Unit 204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2288	$6,000	$2.62	15d	1	0.44mi
13078 Pembroke Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2024	$6,500	$3.21	25d	1	0.45mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	23d	1	0.48mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	25d	1	0.48mi
1256 Carpazi Ct Unit 502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	15d	1	0.48mi
1256 Carpazi Ct #502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	25d	1	0.48mi
12885 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2489	$10,000	$4.02	25d	1	0.51mi
6525 Monterey Pt Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2288	$5,250	$2.29	15d	1	0.52mi
12832 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$5,250	$3.06	15d	1	0.55mi
12914 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1720	$7,000	$4.07	25d	1	0.55mi
12902 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$7,500	$3.57	25d	1	0.57mi
1299 Verde Dr Unit 1503 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$4,200	$2.41	15d	1	0.62mi
1105 Reserve Ct #307 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,995	$1.61	15d	1	0.63mi
1303 Verde Dr Unit 1603 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1877	$2,500	$1.33	15d	1	0.63mi
1205 Reserve Way #302 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$2,300	$1.86	15d	1	0.74mi
3105 La Costa Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,235	$2.13	15d	20	0.90mi
3099 Lancaster Dr Unit 7-701 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2160	$10,000	$4.63	25d	1	1.05mi
3255 Tamara Dr #4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,500	$1.74	15d	1	1.15mi
3250 Cypress Glen Way Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1242	$3,300	$2.66	23d	3	1.20mi
3268 Amanda Ln #3 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,350	$1.64	15d	1	1.23mi
3304 Lisa Ln Unit 102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1272	$2,350	$1.85	15d	1	1.31mi
5025 Maxwell Cir Unit 2 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2021	$3,500	$1.73	15d	1	1.38mi
5050 Blauvelt Way Unit 8-102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2021	$3,700	$1.83	25d	1	1.41mi
104 Siena Way #1407 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$7,000	$4.83	25d	1	1.45mi
106 Siena Way #1508 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$4,500	$3.18	25d	1	1.45mi
103 Tuscana Ct #1107 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1412	$5,000	$3.54	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $751 · $9,012/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-02-17
   price $439,900
2. 2025-12-05
   listed $449,000 Active
3. 2025-10-23
   historical
4. 2025-09-02
   price $449,000
5. 2025-04-12
   price $465,000
6. 2025-02-26
   listed $485,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,641
• − Property taxes: −$6,598
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,354
• − Management: −$5,354
• − HOA: −$9,012
• − Depreciation: −$12,797
• Taxable income: $972
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$233
• After-tax cash flow: $7,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #1903

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,441
• Household income: $92,214
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.65%
• Current HPI: 283.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $439,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $449,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $449,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $465,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listed $485,000 NAPLESMLS