2301 W 3rd St · Thorntonville, TX 79756

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 488 Days on market

Built 1985 0.95 ac lot $61/sqft · 11% above area Est $89k · 11% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property offers great potential as an investment. Main home consists of three bedrooms and 1 bathroom. The spacious lots provide plenty of room for outdoor projects or expansion. 1-water well, 2-water taps, 2 separate electric poles, carports, and a shop that is heated and cooled!!! Schedule your showing today!!!

Key facts

• Water well
• Water taps
• Carports

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOTS
• WATER WELL
• WATER TAPS
• SEPARATE ELECTRIC POLES
• CARPORTS
• HEATED AND COOLED SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $763 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,073 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Monahans-Wickett-Pyote ISD (town): math 33% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Ward County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ward County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 488 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 488 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.04%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,811
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 11.47%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $32,585
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $91,033
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79756

• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,256/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $763

Break-even live

Break-even rent $842

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 488 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 487 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 486 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 485 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 484 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 483 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 482 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 479 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 478 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 477 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 476 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 473 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 472 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 471 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 470 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    price $99,000 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This property offers great potential as an investment. Main home consists of three bedrooms and 1 bathroom. The spacious lots provide plenty of room for outdoor projects or expansion. 1-water well, 2-water taps, 2 separate electric poles, carports, and a shop that is heated and cooled!!! Schedule your showing today!!!

17. 2025-12-31
    price $105,000 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This property offers great potential as an investment. Main home consists of three bedrooms and 1 bathroom. The spacious lots provide plenty of room for outdoor projects or expansion. 1-water well, 2-water taps, 2 separate electric poles, carports, and a shop that is heated and cooled!!! Schedule your showing today!!!

18. 2025-04-10
    status Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This property offers great potential as an investment. Main home consists of three bedrooms and 1 bathroom. The spacious lots provide plenty of room for outdoor projects or expansion. 1-water well, 2-water taps, 2 separate electric poles, carports, and a shop that is heated and cooled!!! Schedule your showing today!!!

19. 2025-03-20
    status Pending 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This property offers great potential as an investment. Main home consists of three bedrooms and 1 bathroom. The spacious lots provide plenty of room for outdoor projects or expansion. 1-water well, 2-water taps, 2 separate electric poles, carports, and a shop that is heated and cooled!!! Schedule your showing today!!!

20. 2025-01-26
    listed $109,000 Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This property offers great potential as an investment. Main home consists of three bedrooms and 1 bathroom. The spacious lots provide plenty of room for outdoor projects or expansion. 1-water well, 2-water taps, 2 separate electric poles, carports, and a shop that is heated and cooled!!! Schedule your showing today!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,256 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$556/yr (+$46/mo · 44.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,256
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $8,048
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,932
• After-tax cash flow: $7,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monahans-Wickett-Pyote ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,117
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6592
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Thorntonville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1073
• US rank: #19032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thorntonville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,558

Population outlook (Ward County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,048 people
• By 2030: 15,329 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 18,112 · +28.9%
• By 2050: 21,301 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 29,199 · +107.9%
• By 2100: 33,968 · +141.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 39% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ward

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.1) · D 16.7% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.1pp · 2024: -66.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.1 2020: R+61.0 2016: R+51.6 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+49.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.06%
• Current HPI: 194.6219
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $99,000 ODMLS
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $105,000 ODMLS
• 2025-04-10 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2025-03-20 Pending — ODMLS
• 2025-01-26 Listed $109,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

+19.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,256 · -16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.