116 Diablo Loop · Elgin, TX 78621

$319,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,569 sqft · SingleFamily · 782 Days on market

Built 2024 $204/sqft · at area comps Est $325k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Amber is a graceful design capturing the natural beauty of the gem it is named for. Invite them in to enjoy the comfort of your radiant family room. There's always room for one or two more friends at the dinner table. When it's just the family, surround yourself in the warmth of the cheery kitchen and snug breakfast nook. You'll have a perfect view of the art gallery that is your refrigerator. After dinner, it's story time followed by a bath ? once you've given your mouse a cookie. Fall asleep in your gorgeous primary suite, knowing today was a rewarding day.

Key facts

• Built 2024
• Listed 782 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-562 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 782 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,231 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 782 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.54%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,247
• List price: $319,400
• Delta: -1.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Two Bits Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (-2%)	1mo	$298,925	$195	79
143 Two Bits Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (-2%)	2mo	$289,990	$189	79
159 Two Bits Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (-2%)	2mo	$288,990	$189	79
140 Tolo Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-5%)	0mo	$253,990	$171	73
445 Lucky Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-5%)	2mo	$276,990	$186	72
150 Tolo Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-5%)	1mo	$284,990	$192	72
435 Lucky Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,522 (-3%)	1mo	$299,490	$197	72
153 Tolo Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-6%)	2mo	$299,990	$202	70
126 Two Bits Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-12%)	2mo	$259,990	$187	70
137 Two Bits Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-12%)	3mo	$267,990	$193	68
305 Bendecido Loop	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,674 (+7%)	3mo	$278,975	$167	66
437 Lucky Ave	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,648 (+5%)	2mo	$300,490	$182	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $138,425
• Equity at exit: $287,741

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $436,377
• Equity at exit: $620,524

Cash invested: $89,432 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,791/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,794

Max offer price $238,038

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-342	-5% $-452	+0% $-562	+5% $-673	+10% $-783
Rent	-10% $-727	-5% $-645	+0% $-562	+5% $-480	+10% $-398
Rate	-1.0pp $-401	-0.5pp $-481	base $-562	+0.5pp $-645	+1.0pp $-729

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,850
• Closing costs: $9,582
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Bendecido Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	18d	1	0.04mi
813 Central Ave Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,300	$1.14	5d	1	0.73mi
110 S Main St #104 Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,700	$1.60	44d	1	1.03mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	5d	1	1.07mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,400 Active 782 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,400 Active 781 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,400 Active 780 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,400 Active 779 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,400 Active 777 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,400 Active 773 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,400 Active 772 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,400 Active 771 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $319,400 Active 768 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,400 Active 767 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,400 Active 766 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,400 Active 765 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,400 Active 764 DOM
14. 2024-05-14
    price $319,400 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    The Amber is a graceful design capturing the natural beauty of the gem it is named for. Invite them in to enjoy the comfort of your radiant family room. There's always room for one or two more friends at the dinner table. When it's just the family, surround yourself in the warmth of the cheery kitchen and snug breakfast nook. You'll have a perfect view of the art gallery that is your refrigerator. After dinner, it's story time followed by a bath ? once you've given your mouse a cookie. Fall asleep in your gorgeous primary suite, knowing today was a rewarding day.

15. 2024-05-01
    historical 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    The Amber is a graceful design capturing the natural beauty of the gem it is named for. Invite them in to enjoy the comfort of your radiant family room. There's always room for one or two more friends at the dinner table. When it's just the family, surround yourself in the warmth of the cheery kitchen and snug breakfast nook. You'll have a perfect view of the art gallery that is your refrigerator. After dinner, it's story time followed by a bath ? once you've given your mouse a cookie. Fall asleep in your gorgeous primary suite, knowing today was a rewarding day.

16. 2024-04-30
    listed $319,900 Active 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    The Amber is a graceful design capturing the natural beauty of the gem it is named for. Invite them in to enjoy the comfort of your radiant family room. There's always room for one or two more friends at the dinner table. When it's just the family, surround yourself in the warmth of the cheery kitchen and snug breakfast nook. You'll have a perfect view of the art gallery that is your refrigerator. After dinner, it's story time followed by a bath ? once you've given your mouse a cookie. Fall asleep in your gorgeous primary suite, knowing today was a rewarding day.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,891
• − Property taxes: −$4,791
• − Insurance: −$1,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − Depreciation: −$9,292
• Taxable loss: −$12,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,020
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $319,400 Zillow
• 2024-05-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-04-30 Listed $319,900 Zillow