5396 Graysontown Rd · Radford, VA 24141

$69,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · Manufactured public records · 194 Days on market

Built 1970 0.51 ac lot $54/sqft · 64% below area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This conveniently located investment opportunity in Auburn School district offers lots of possibilities. Property is being sold as-is and is vacant, schedule showing through Sentrilock

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 193 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $688 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 3.6% in Radford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#269 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, schools A-, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Montgomery County Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 323 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $70k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.40%
• DSCR: 2.89
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,000
• List price: $69,500
• Delta: -64.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $38,095
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $114,163
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24141

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $923/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $727	-5% $707	+0% $688	+5% $668	+10% $648
Rent	-10% $572	-5% $630	+0% $688	+5% $745	+10% $803
Rate	-1.0pp $723	-0.5pp $705	base $688	+0.5pp $670	+1.0pp $651

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $69,500 Active 194 DOM
2. 2025-12-13
   price $69,500 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   This conveniently located investment opportunity in Auburn School district offers lots of possibilities. Property is being sold as-is and is vacant, schedule showing through Sentrilock

3. 2025-11-17
   listed $72,000 Active 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   This conveniently located investment opportunity in Auburn School district offers lots of possibilities. Property is being sold as-is and is vacant, schedule showing through Sentrilock

4. 2025-07-30
   soldstatus $40,000
5. 2010-03-22
   soldstatus $80,000
6. 2010-02-02
   soldstatus $60,000
7. 2005-04-25
   soldstatus $79,500
8. 2002-11-14
   soldstatus $79,900
9. 2002-11-14
   soldstatus $79,900
10. 2002-08-02
    soldstatus $75,000
11. 2002-08-02
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $923 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $923 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$923
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,407
• − Management: −$1,407
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $7,589
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,821
• After-tax cash flow: $6,430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102520
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,618
• Composite: 53.6/100
• National rank: #1440
• State rank: #47 of 131 in VA

Livability — Radford

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #9496

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Radford City · 21,484 people
• City population: 21,484
• Metro: Blacksburg-Christiansburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 21,484
• Household income: $62,969
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,748 people
• By 2030: 110,301 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 115,652 · +9.4%
• By 2050: 119,651 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 126,005 · +19.2%
• By 2100: 129,771 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 47.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: 3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+1.3 2012: R+0.2 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.42%
• Current HPI: 240.7418
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.63%
• Metro: Blacksburg-Christiansburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $69,500 NRVMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $72,000 NRVMLS
• 2025-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2010-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2010-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records
• 2002-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2002-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2002-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $923 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.