3828 Bethel Church Rd · Beaver Dam, KY 42320

$99,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 2000 Poor condition 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

10 Acres of beautiful woods just outside of town with a 2000 model manufactured home on a permanent foundation. Home is in need of extensive repair, but has tons of potential. Features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, two living rooms and an eat in kitchen. 2052 sq ft! Will not pass FHA/VA/USDA guidelines. Qualified Conventional and cash buyers only. Property to be sold as is. Has operational electric, plumbing, and hvac. Metal roof is approximately 8 years old. Appointment only. Seller may request proof of conventional loan pre-approval or verified funds prior to showing.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Operational electric
• Operational plumbing

Tags

• 10 ACRES OF WOODS
• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• OPERATIONAL ELECTRIC
• OPERATIONAL PLUMBING
• OPERATIONAL HVAC
• METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Septic tank (sewer)
• Home design: Manufactured home on land; Single-story; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built area above grade approximately 2,052
• Exterior features: Front porch; Stream on the property; Storage building/structure; Rolling slope lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#361 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ohio County (rural): math 29% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #58 of 165 in KY (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wayland Alexander Elementary School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #197 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 659 students, 67% FRL); Ohio County Middle School (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 550 students, 62% FRL); Ohio County High School (math 39% / reading 48%, grade F, #28 of 254 statewide, top 11%, 1,144 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Ohio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.66%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,622
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $26,557
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42320

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,247 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 567-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $99,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,073
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $3,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 30/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to code and make it move-in ready. Significant structural and aesthetic improvements are needed to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed subfloor — Structural damage
• Major Missing cabinets — Aesthetic and functional loss
• Major Worn fixtures — Aesthetic and functional loss
• Major Outdated wallpaper — Aesthetic and functional loss
• Major Metal roof — Structural integrity
• Major Overgrown vegetation — Safety hazard
• Major Worn siding — Structural integrity
• Major Worn hardwood floors — Aesthetic and functional loss
• Major Peeling paint — Aesthetic and functional loss

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof — Structural integrity and safety
• Both New cabinets and fixtures — Aesthetic and functional improvement
• Both Painting and wallpaper removal — Aesthetic and functional improvement
• Both Floor refinishing — Aesthetic and functional improvement
• Both Landscaping and vegetation trimming — Safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed subfloor · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing cabinets · Aesthetic and functional loss	Major	$15,000–50,000
Worn fixtures · Aesthetic and functional loss	Major	$15,000–50,000
Outdated wallpaper · Aesthetic and functional loss	Major	$15,000–50,000
Metal roof · Structural integrity	Major	$15,000–50,000
Overgrown vegetation · Safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Worn siding · Structural integrity	Major	$15,000–50,000
Worn hardwood floors · Aesthetic and functional loss	Major	$15,000–50,000
Peeling paint · Aesthetic and functional loss	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New roof — Structural integrity and safety ↑
• Both New cabinets and fixtures — Aesthetic and functional improvement ↑
• Both Painting and wallpaper removal — Aesthetic and functional improvement ↑
• Both Floor refinishing — Aesthetic and functional improvement ↑
• Both Landscaping and vegetation trimming — Safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ohio County
• NCES district ID: 2104500
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $39,068
• Composite: 30.49/100
• National rank: #6219
• State rank: #58 of 165 in KY

Livability — Beaver Dam

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #361
• US rank: #17225

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,630

Population outlook (Ohio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,945 people
• By 2030: 25,153 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 25,267 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 25,019 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 23,435 · -6.1%
• By 2100: 19,314 · -22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Ohio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.1% · R 79.4% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.4pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+55.5 2016: R+56.4 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+16.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.26%
• Current HPI: 171.8186
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $99,900 GORAMLS