16917 Glenheath · Conroe, TX 77316

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,011 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2018 2,099 sqft lot Est $160k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 1 Story MOVE IN READY New Construction home in Lake Conroe Village Subdivision. This Gorgeous Open Floor Plan has 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths. Front door with Glass Insert. Large Kitchen area with Granite counter tops and ample Kitchen Cabinets with S/Steel pulls, Dishwasher, Electric Stove, and Microwave. Living Room has pocket doors and lots of windows. Laundry room with shelving and hanging rod. Close proximity to TX-105 and I-45. Easy drive to the Historic Downtown Conroe, The Woodland Mall and Market Street Restaurants. Located minutes from Lake Conroe for boating, fishing, and other recreational water activities. Schools are zoned to the acclaimed Montgomery Independent School District. Don't miss out on this home, call today and schedule a showing. This home will not be on the market for long! Over 100 new homes scheduled to be built in this subdivision.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New construction
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO TX-105

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (first-floor living)
• Construction: Built in 2018; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the first floor; approx. 12x12 and 14x12)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Thermostat (energy efficient)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.15%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,738
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16900 West Juneau	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,014 (+0%)	1mo	$153,000	$151	90
16891 W Dounreay St	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,030 (+2%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	84
16895 W Dounreay St	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,030 (+2%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	84
241 Ridgeside	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,012 (+0%)	4mo	$160,000	$158	83
16899 W Dounreay St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,030 (+2%)	6mo	$161,900	$157	83
16965 W Hammon	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,065 (+5%)	1mo	$180,000	$169	82
16930 W Lynbrook St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,030 (+2%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	80
16902 W Alderson	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,058 (+5%)	2mo	$179,900	$170	75
16725 E Hammon	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	958 (-5%)	4mo	$169,900	$177	74
16729 E Hammon	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,072 (+6%)	4mo	$177,900	$166	74
16938 W Lynbrook St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	940 (-7%)	5mo	$157,900	$168	71
846 Omeara	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,095 (+8%)	2mo	$170,000	$155	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-21,032
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-23,865
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,564/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,345

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	13d	1	0.09mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	0.12mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.14mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	24d	1	0.54mi
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	44d	1	0.79mi
1406 April Villas Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	24d	1	0.82mi
1406 April Villas Unit C Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	717	$1,150	$1.60	24d	1	0.82mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1103A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,210	$1.71	44d	1	0.83mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1201A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	923	$1,775	$1.92	44d	1	0.83mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1101A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	821	$1,855	$2.26	44d	1	0.83mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	44d	1	0.90mi
124 April Point Dr S #124 Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,490	$1.15	20d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,564 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$181/yr (+$15/mo · 7.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,564
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$267
• After-tax cash flow: $1,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-17 Rental Removed $1,275 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-08 Listed for Rent $1,275 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-08 Rental Removed $1,275 HARMLS
• 2024-09-21 Listed for Rent $1,275 HARMLS
• 2024-09-21 Rental Removed $1,275 HARMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $1,275 HARMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listed for Rent $1,375 HARMLS
• 2024-03-27 Rental Removed $1,335 HARMLS
• 2024-02-20 Listed for Rent $1,335 HARMLS
• 2024-02-19 Rental Removed $1,335 HARMLS
• 2024-01-23 Price Changed $1,335 HARMLS
• 2023-12-19 Price Changed $1,375 HARMLS
• 2023-12-19 Listed for Rent $1,350 HARMLS
• 2019-06-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-05-03 Listed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2019-02-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-10-23 Listed $139,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+35.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,564 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.