7123 Cedar Hollow Cir · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34203

$259,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Condo public records · 168 Days on market

Built 2001 $517/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. LIVE ON VACATION NOW! Fall in love with this BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED 2BR/2BA ground-floor condo, perfectly positioned with the community pool right in your backyard! Bright, cheerful, and MOVE-IN READY, enjoy soaring CATHEDRAL CEILINGS, LUXURY VINYL plank floors, and a private screened lanai surrounded by lush, tropical greenery. The kitchen has been remodeled with BRAND NEW TOP OF THE LINE LG APPLIANCES, plenty of counter space, a handy pantry, and a cozy breakfast nook that’s perfect for morning coffee! Both bedrooms have brand-new carpet, and the split plan provides wonderful privacy with a guest suite featuring a pocket door. The spacious prima

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Ground-floor condo
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• GROUND-FLOOR CONDO
• PRIVATE SCREENED LANAI
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• GUEST SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-800/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (4.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 384 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $131k; list at $259k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-53,655
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-80,894
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34203

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,626 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,901/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$517
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,711

Max offer price $247,228

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $7	+0% $-67	+5% $-140	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-274	-5% $-170	+0% $-67	+5% $37	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $-1	base $-67	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7138 Cedar Hollow Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1406	$2,000	$1.42	16d	1	0.02mi
7224 Cedar Hollow Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1406	$2,200	$1.56	24d	1	0.07mi
7279 Cedar Hollow Cir Unit Available Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1352	$3,500	$2.59	24d	1	0.07mi
6372 Rookery Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$4,300	$2.32	24d	1	0.16mi
6421 Bay Cedar Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,100	$1.54	24d	1	0.23mi
6642 Tailfeather Way Unit Available Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	24d	1	0.26mi
6351 Bay Cedar Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	24d	1	0.30mi
7037 Scrub Jay Way Unit 7037 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,000	$1.52	24d	1	0.33mi
7189 Strand Cir Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,300	$1.68	24d	1	0.37mi
6251 Wingspan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,300	$1.53	24d	1	0.56mi
6437 Brook Village Cv Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$1,958	$1.73	2d	13	0.63mi
8110 Misty Wood Ave Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,890	$1.74	2d	18	0.78mi
6718 Virginia Xing University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1721	$5,250	$3.05	24d	1	0.82mi
6738 Peach Tree Creek Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1838	$6,200	$3.37	24d	1	0.85mi
7269 Fountain Palm Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,300	$1.42	24d	1	0.90mi
6055 Wingspan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,500	$1.52	24d	1	0.92mi
5808 Nesters Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1645	$5,000	$3.04	24d	1	0.99mi
5939 Sandstone Ave Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1732	$2,900	$1.67	20d	1	1.20mi
7341 Black Walnut Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,300	$2.09	24d	1	1.21mi
7350 Black Walnut Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$1,995	$1.88	24d	1	1.22mi
8808 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1092	$2,300	$2.11	24d	1	1.26mi
8828 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1092	$1,975	$1.81	3d	1	1.27mi
8809 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$2,200	$2.07	12d	1	1.29mi
8858 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$1,900	$1.79	3d	1	1.33mi
6713 Stone River Rd #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$1,900	$1.54	24d	1	1.37mi
6807 Stone River Rd #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,500	$2.71	16d	1	1.39mi
7186 Lakeside Dr Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,750	$1.81	16d	1	1.40mi
5905 Doral Dr Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1298	$2,400	$1.85	24d	1	1.43mi
6872 Fairview Ter #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1352	$2,000	$1.48	24d	1	1.47mi
6870 Fairview Ter #6870 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$2,200	$1.63	16d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $517 · $6,204/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-28
   price $259,000
3. 2026-01-22
   price $269,000
4. 2026-01-22
   status Active
5. 2025-11-07
   price $279,900
6. 2025-10-11
   listed $297,000 Active
7. 2002-01-14
   soldstatus $130,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$1,901
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,521
• − Management: −$2,521
• − HOA: −$6,204
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$4,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,192
• After-tax cash flow: $393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,618
• Household income: $70,761
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1469.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.87%
• Current HPI: 295.8871
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+97.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-11 Listed $297,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $130,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,901 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.