1519 Arlington Ave · St. Louis, MO 63112

$40,000

None bd · 4.0 ba · 6,010 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1897 8,250 sqft lot $7/sqft · 49% below area Est $79k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

This is a tra-down start your new project

Key facts

• 8,250 sq ft lot
• Built 1897
• Listed 131 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a ?-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $813 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.13%
• DSCR: 4.88
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,653
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -49.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $44,491
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.12×
• Total profit: $102,112
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63112

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,363 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $442/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $813

Break-even live

Break-even rent $333

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $836	-5% $824	+0% $813	+5% $802	+10% $791
Rent	-10% $706	-5% $759	+0% $813	+5% $867	+10% $921
Rate	-1.0pp $833	-0.5pp $823	base $813	+0.5pp $803	+1.0pp $792

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5130 Kensington Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	6120	$1,450	$0.24	8d	1	0.97mi
5103 Waterman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	5412	$1,200	$0.22	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-02-10
    listed $40,000 Active 41-char remark

    Show marketing remark (41 chars)

    This is a tra-down start your new project

16. 2026-02-10
    historical $40,000 41-char remark

    Show marketing remark (41 chars)

    This is a tra-down start your new project

17. 2025-06-25
    price $80,000
18. 2025-06-18
    price $91,000
19. 2025-06-13
    price $92,000
20. 2025-06-10
    price $97,000
21. 2025-06-02
    listed $100,000 Active
22. 2016-02-10
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2016-01-19
    historical Contingent (No Kickout)
24. 2016-01-03
    status Active
25. 2015-12-08
    historical
26. 2015-11-30
    price $4,000
27. 2015-11-29
    status Active
28. 2015-10-31
    historical
29. 2015-09-09
    listed $12,000 Active
30. 2015-04-11
    price $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $442 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $442 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$442
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,308
• − Management: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $9,688
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,325
• After-tax cash flow: $7,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 17,985
• Household income: $45,542
• Rent vs Own: 64.1% rent · 35.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1457.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 24% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.94%
• Current HPI: 115.1863
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Coming Soon $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $80,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $91,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $92,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $97,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-02 Listed $100,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-10 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-19 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-03 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-08 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-30 Price Changed $4,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-29 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-31 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-09 Listed $12,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-11 Price Changed $12,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $442 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.