4015 East Teal Estates Cir · Fresno, TX 77545

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,634 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 2006 6,708 sqft lot $141/sqft · 11% below area Est $258k · 11% under $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming home located in the desirable Estates of Teal Run neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms and a spacious layout, this home offers an oversized kitchen that overlooks the family room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. BRAND NEW ROOF. Conveniently located near the walking park, community pool, elementary school, nearby shopping, movie theater, gym, and great dining options, this home is an excellent starter home. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this inviting home your own.

Key facts

• 6,708 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($534/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.3% in Fresno — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.83%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,634
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -10.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1014 Sapling Crest Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,730 (+6%)	1mo	$244,900	$142	83
1039 N Teal Estates Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+5%)	2mo	$269,500	$157	82
4134 Teal Valley Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,613 (-1%)	5mo	$250,000	$155	75
3947 Teal Run Meadows Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,646 (+1%)	3mo	$244,990	$149	75
4326 Eaglewood Trail Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,646 (+1%)	6mo	$250,000	$152	73
4014 Teal Vista Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,646 (+1%)	0mo	$238,500	$145	73
4426 Eaglewood Trail Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,696 (+4%)	6mo	$240,000	$142	63
4527 Green Fawn Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-6%)	3mo	$225,000	$146	56
4022 Floral Way Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,820 (+11%)	6mo	$239,900	$132	48
1603 Bonnie Lea Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,878 (+15%)	2mo	$225,000	$120	43
3820 Kansas St	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,796 (+10%)	8mo	$259,000	$144	42
4730 Hardwood Glen Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,867 (+14%)	2mo	$260,000	$139	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-31,154
• Equity at exit: $44,875

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-40,320
• Equity at exit: $38,545

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,329 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$435 /mo · $5,224/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,273

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $110	+0% $44	+5% $-21	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-139	-5% $-47	+0% $44	+5% $136	+10% $228
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $103	base $44	+0.5pp $-15	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4619 Monarch Blue Ln Fresno, TX	3.0	2.5	1933	$1,846	$0.95	45d	1	0.60mi
3932 Teal Run Place Ct Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	1914	$2,150	$1.12	45d	1	0.64mi
919 Yorkshire Holw Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,100	$1.39	45d	1	0.67mi
3623 Elmwood Dale Dr Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,765	$1.14	45d	1	1.09mi
4931 Natchez Trce Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,350	$1.28	45d	1	1.11mi
1402 Windom Court Way Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	1831	$2,300	$1.26	45d	1	1.16mi
11727 Highway 6 Fresno, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$2,929	$3.04	6d	15	1.25mi
3235 Becker Glen St Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,786	$1.39	0d	1	1.37mi
2403 Orchard Run Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$2,800	$1.92	5d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $230,000 Pending 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $230,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $240,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    price $240,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home located in the desirable Estates of Teal Run neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms and a spacious layout, this home offers an oversized kitchen that overlooks the family room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. BRAND NEW ROOF. Conveniently located near the walking park, community pool, elementary school, nearby shopping, movie theater, gym, and great dining options, this home is an excellent starter home. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this inviting home your own.

15. 2026-04-30
    status Active 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home located in the desirable Estates of Teal Run neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms and a spacious layout, this home offers an oversized kitchen that overlooks the family room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. BRAND NEW ROOF. Conveniently located near the walking park, community pool, elementary school, nearby shopping, movie theater, gym, and great dining options, this home is an excellent starter home. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this inviting home your own.

16. 2026-04-30
    price $265,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home located in the desirable Estates of Teal Run neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms and a spacious layout, this home offers an oversized kitchen that overlooks the family room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. BRAND NEW ROOF. Conveniently located near the walking park, community pool, elementary school, nearby shopping, movie theater, gym, and great dining options, this home is an excellent starter home. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this inviting home your own.

17. 2026-04-15
    status Pending 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home located in the desirable Estates of Teal Run neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms and a spacious layout, this home offers an oversized kitchen that overlooks the family room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. BRAND NEW ROOF. Conveniently located near the walking park, community pool, elementary school, nearby shopping, movie theater, gym, and great dining options, this home is an excellent starter home. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this inviting home your own.

18. 2026-04-06
    status Pending 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home located in the desirable Estates of Teal Run neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms and a spacious layout, this home offers an oversized kitchen that overlooks the family room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. BRAND NEW ROOF. Conveniently located near the walking park, community pool, elementary school, nearby shopping, movie theater, gym, and great dining options, this home is an excellent starter home. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this inviting home your own.

19. 2026-03-19
    price $250,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home located in the desirable Estates of Teal Run neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms and a spacious layout, this home offers an oversized kitchen that overlooks the family room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. BRAND NEW ROOF. Conveniently located near the walking park, community pool, elementary school, nearby shopping, movie theater, gym, and great dining options, this home is an excellent starter home. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this inviting home your own.

20. 2026-03-09
    price $260,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home located in the desirable Estates of Teal Run neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms and a spacious layout, this home offers an oversized kitchen that overlooks the family room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. BRAND NEW ROOF. Conveniently located near the walking park, community pool, elementary school, nearby shopping, movie theater, gym, and great dining options, this home is an excellent starter home. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this inviting home your own.

21. 2026-03-02
    price $265,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home located in the desirable Estates of Teal Run neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms and a spacious layout, this home offers an oversized kitchen that overlooks the family room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. BRAND NEW ROOF. Conveniently located near the walking park, community pool, elementary school, nearby shopping, movie theater, gym, and great dining options, this home is an excellent starter home. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this inviting home your own.

22. 2026-02-11
    listed $278,000 Active 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home located in the desirable Estates of Teal Run neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms and a spacious layout, this home offers an oversized kitchen that overlooks the family room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. BRAND NEW ROOF. Conveniently located near the walking park, community pool, elementary school, nearby shopping, movie theater, gym, and great dining options, this home is an excellent starter home. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this inviting home your own.

23. 2019-10-30
    soldstatus
24. 2019-10-25
    soldstatus Sold 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Single Story in Estates of Teal Run! Tile Throughout, NO Carpet! Kitchen Appliances 9/2019! Walk in Pantry! Fireplace! Master Bathroom with Double Sinks, Tub and Separate Shower! Relax under the Covered Back Patio! COME SEE! COME BUY!

25. 2019-10-12
    status Pending 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Single Story in Estates of Teal Run! Tile Throughout, NO Carpet! Kitchen Appliances 9/2019! Walk in Pantry! Fireplace! Master Bathroom with Double Sinks, Tub and Separate Shower! Relax under the Covered Back Patio! COME SEE! COME BUY!

26. 2019-09-30
    status Option Pending 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Single Story in Estates of Teal Run! Tile Throughout, NO Carpet! Kitchen Appliances 9/2019! Walk in Pantry! Fireplace! Master Bathroom with Double Sinks, Tub and Separate Shower! Relax under the Covered Back Patio! COME SEE! COME BUY!

27. 2019-09-14
    listed $189,000 Active 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Single Story in Estates of Teal Run! Tile Throughout, NO Carpet! Kitchen Appliances 9/2019! Walk in Pantry! Fireplace! Master Bathroom with Double Sinks, Tub and Separate Shower! Relax under the Covered Back Patio! COME SEE! COME BUY!

28. 2009-06-10
    soldstatus
29. 2009-06-04
    soldstatus
30. 2009-05-05
    historical
31. 2009-04-22
    listed $80,250
32. 2009-04-04
    historical
33. 2008-08-15
    listed $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,224 · $435/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,224 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$5,224
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,236
• − Management: −$2,236
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$3,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$761
• After-tax cash flow: $1,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+182.4% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $278,000 HARMLS
• 2019-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-10-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-09-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-09-14 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2009-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-06-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-05-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-04-22 Listed $80,250 HARMLS
• 2009-04-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-08-15 Listed $85,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,224 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.