901 Connelly St · Clovis, NM 88101

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 1950

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute home with lots of character.

Key facts

• Natural light
• Backyard
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS BASEMENT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• ADDITIONAL SPACE
• BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#171 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Clovis Municipal Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #13 of 29 in NM (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 169 units permitted in Curry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Curry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,151 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $30,888
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1420 Wallace Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,298 (+9%)	16mo	$34,000	$26	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,204
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $19,549
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88101

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,152 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $951

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $229	-5% $194	+0% $158	+5% $123	+10% $88
Rent	-10% $67	-5% $113	+0% $158	+5% $204	+10% $249
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $190	base $158	+0.5pp $126	+1.0pp $93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
401 E 5th St Unit 5 Clovis, NM	2.0	1.0	800	$850	$1.06	44d	1	0.49mi
2100 Mitchell St Unit 14 Clovis, NM	2.0	1.0	743	$750	$1.01	44d	1	0.88mi
109 State Ave Clovis, NM	2.0	1.0	816	$2,000	$2.45	44d	1	1.01mi
1808 Debra St Clovis, NM	3.0	2.5	1412	$1,400	$0.99	44d	1	1.19mi
1500 Echols Ave Clovis, NM	2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$948	$1.04	44d	5	1.20mi
2517 Ross St Clovis, NM	2.0	1.0	991	$950	$0.96	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2019-05-17
   soldstatus
4. 2018-06-15
   soldstatus 33-char remark

   Show marketing remark (33 chars)

   Cute home with lots of character.

5. 2018-03-17
   listed $16,900 33-char remark

   Show marketing remark (33 chars)

   Cute home with lots of character.

6. 2006-07-26
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $525 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,000 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$475/yr (+$40/mo · 90.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$181
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$43
• After-tax cash flow: $1,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clovis Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500570
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $40,532
• Composite: 33.52/100
• National rank: #5435
• State rank: #13 of 29 in NM

Livability — Clovis

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #22374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clovis, NM
• County: Curry County · 44,846 people
• City population: 44,846
• Metro: Clovis, NM
• Population (ZIP): 44,846
• Household income: $56,587
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1724.0

Population outlook (Curry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,742 people
• By 2030: 47,759 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 45,444 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 42,403 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 33,878 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 22,414 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 42% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Curry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 27.8% · R 70.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+38.6 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.79%
• Current HPI: 121.1877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.54%
• Metro: Clovis, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+639.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $125,000 NMMLS
• 2019-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-06-15 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2018-03-17 Listed $16,900 NMMLS
• 2006-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $525 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.