Lincoln Plan · Nolensville, TN 37014

$790,990

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,021 sqft · SingleFamily · 772 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Homes for Sale in Arrington, TN As a distinguished destination for new home buyers in Arrington, TN, Pine Creek offers a compelling mix of contemporary living, marked by spacious interiors and luxurious amenities. Each home features main level owner's suites, gourmet kitchens, and expansive living areas, set on large, tree-lined homesites that enhance privacy and outdoor enjoyment. The community itself is integrated seamlessly into the natural surroundings, boasting scenic walking trails and a stocked fishing pond, making it an idyllic escape from the hustle and bustle. Situated just steps from the renowned Arrington Vineyards and various shopping and dining venues, Pine Creek provides the perfect blend of rural charm and suburban convenience, all within the highly-regarded Williamson County School District. With home plans ranging from 2,800 to over 4,000 square feet, featuring up to 7 bedrooms and 6.5 bathrooms, Pine Creek is positioned to fulfill a range of homeowner expectations and dreams. The community's design philosophy underscores a commitment to creating spaces where families can thrive and create lasting memories. Pine Creek by Dream Finders Homes not only stands as a beacon of modern and luxurious living in Arrington, TN but also offers a welcoming community atmosphere, making it an ultimate choice for those seeking a new home in a picturesque setting.

Key facts

• Spacious interiors
• Large
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SPACIOUS INTERIORS
• MAIN LEVEL OWNER'S SUITES
• EXPANSIVE LIVING AREAS
• LARGE
• TREE-LINED HOMESITES
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS

🏗️ New construction. The $790,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $967,622.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $791k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $743k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $650k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $650k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.2% in Nolensville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#2 in TN, #2,317 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: College Grove Elementary (math 72% / reading 59%, grade B+, #37 of 952 statewide, top 4%, 768 students, 0% FRL); Spring Station Middle School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade D, #30 of 333 statewide, top 9%, 828 students, 0% FRL); Summit High School (math 9% / reading 62%, grade F, #38 of 332 statewide, top 11%, 1,708 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $70k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 772 days — a 12% lower offer ($696k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $650,000 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 772 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.87%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $967,622
• List price: $790,990
• Delta: -18.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1301 Galloping Hill Way	0.28mi	5/3.5	3,045 (+1%)	3mo	$880,000	$289	83
3009 Lilybelle Ct	0.13mi	5/3.5	3,387 (+12%)	2mo	$950,000	$280	72
3021 Lilybelle Ct	0.10mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,369 (+12%)	3mo	$1,073,500	$319	68
7020 Fiddlers Glen Dr	0.16mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,374 (+12%)	1mo	$1,075,000	$319	67
1061 Pine Creek Dr	0.30mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,045 (+1%)	18mo	$876,096	$288	65
1004 Pine Creek Dr	0.00mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,369 (+12%)	14mo	$1,080,990	$321	64
1278 Galloping Hill Way	0.38mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,289 (+9%)	7mo	$1,050,000	$319	57
1269 Galloping Hill Way	0.41mi	5/3.5	3,285 (+9%)	18mo	$957,411	$291	51
1992 Ellsworth Ln	0.25mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,369 (+12%)	18mo	$989,990	$294	49
1297G Galloping Way	0.28mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,369 (+12%)	18mo	$1,120,502	$333	48
7203 Fiddlers Glen Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,205 (+6%)	18mo	$890,000	$278	32
7209 Fiddlers Glen Dr	0.75mi	5/4.5	3,306 (+9%)	18mo	$939,900	$284	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $212,108
• Equity at exit: $641,782

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $694,219
• Equity at exit: $1,193,907

Cash invested: $270,934 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37014

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,074
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,210 /mo · $14,514/yr
• Insurance: −$403
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,365
• Net cashflow: $-1,552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,465

Max offer price $743,043

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-883	-5% $-1,218	+0% $-1,552	+5% $-1,886	+10% $-2,221
Rent	-10% $-2,066	-5% $-1,809	+0% $-1,552	+5% $-1,295	+10% $-1,039
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,065	-0.5pp $-1,306	base $-1,552	+0.5pp $-1,803	+1.0pp $-2,058

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $241,906
• Closing costs: $29,029
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1301 Ashby Valley Ln Arrington, TN	4.0	4.5	4282	$6,500	$1.52	25d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $790,990 Active 772 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $790,990 Active 769 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $790,990 Active 768 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $790,990 Active 767 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $790,990 Active 766 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $790,990 Active 764 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $790,990 Active 763 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $790,990 Active 760 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $790,990 Active 759 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $790,990 Active 758 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $790,990 Active 753 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $790,990 Active 752 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $790,990 Active 751 DOM
14. 2024-10-16
    status Active 1390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1390 chars)

    New Homes for Sale in Arrington, TN As a distinguished destination for new home buyers in Arrington, TN, Pine Creek offers a compelling mix of contemporary living, marked by spacious interiors and luxurious amenities. Each home features main level owner's suites, gourmet kitchens, and expansive living areas, set on large, tree-lined homesites that enhance privacy and outdoor enjoyment. The community itself is integrated seamlessly into the natural surroundings, boasting scenic walking trails and a stocked fishing pond, making it an idyllic escape from the hustle and bustle. Situated just steps from the renowned Arrington Vineyards and various shopping and dining venues, Pine Creek provides the perfect blend of rural charm and suburban convenience, all within the highly-regarded Williamson County School District. With home plans ranging from 2,800 to over 4,000 square feet, featuring up to 7 bedrooms and 6.5 bathrooms, Pine Creek is positioned to fulfill a range of homeowner expectations and dreams. The community's design philosophy underscores a commitment to creating spaces where families can thrive and create lasting memories. Pine Creek by Dream Finders Homes not only stands as a beacon of modern and luxurious living in Arrington, TN but also offers a welcoming community atmosphere, making it an ultimate choice for those seeking a new home in a picturesque setting.

15. 2024-10-16
    historical 1390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1390 chars)

    New Homes for Sale in Arrington, TN As a distinguished destination for new home buyers in Arrington, TN, Pine Creek offers a compelling mix of contemporary living, marked by spacious interiors and luxurious amenities. Each home features main level owner's suites, gourmet kitchens, and expansive living areas, set on large, tree-lined homesites that enhance privacy and outdoor enjoyment. The community itself is integrated seamlessly into the natural surroundings, boasting scenic walking trails and a stocked fishing pond, making it an idyllic escape from the hustle and bustle. Situated just steps from the renowned Arrington Vineyards and various shopping and dining venues, Pine Creek provides the perfect blend of rural charm and suburban convenience, all within the highly-regarded Williamson County School District. With home plans ranging from 2,800 to over 4,000 square feet, featuring up to 7 bedrooms and 6.5 bathrooms, Pine Creek is positioned to fulfill a range of homeowner expectations and dreams. The community's design philosophy underscores a commitment to creating spaces where families can thrive and create lasting memories. Pine Creek by Dream Finders Homes not only stands as a beacon of modern and luxurious living in Arrington, TN but also offers a welcoming community atmosphere, making it an ultimate choice for those seeking a new home in a picturesque setting.

16. 2024-06-21
    price $790,990 1390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1390 chars)

    New Homes for Sale in Arrington, TN As a distinguished destination for new home buyers in Arrington, TN, Pine Creek offers a compelling mix of contemporary living, marked by spacious interiors and luxurious amenities. Each home features main level owner's suites, gourmet kitchens, and expansive living areas, set on large, tree-lined homesites that enhance privacy and outdoor enjoyment. The community itself is integrated seamlessly into the natural surroundings, boasting scenic walking trails and a stocked fishing pond, making it an idyllic escape from the hustle and bustle. Situated just steps from the renowned Arrington Vineyards and various shopping and dining venues, Pine Creek provides the perfect blend of rural charm and suburban convenience, all within the highly-regarded Williamson County School District. With home plans ranging from 2,800 to over 4,000 square feet, featuring up to 7 bedrooms and 6.5 bathrooms, Pine Creek is positioned to fulfill a range of homeowner expectations and dreams. The community's design philosophy underscores a commitment to creating spaces where families can thrive and create lasting memories. Pine Creek by Dream Finders Homes not only stands as a beacon of modern and luxurious living in Arrington, TN but also offers a welcoming community atmosphere, making it an ultimate choice for those seeking a new home in a picturesque setting.

17. 2024-06-01
    price $785,990 1390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1390 chars)

    New Homes for Sale in Arrington, TN As a distinguished destination for new home buyers in Arrington, TN, Pine Creek offers a compelling mix of contemporary living, marked by spacious interiors and luxurious amenities. Each home features main level owner's suites, gourmet kitchens, and expansive living areas, set on large, tree-lined homesites that enhance privacy and outdoor enjoyment. The community itself is integrated seamlessly into the natural surroundings, boasting scenic walking trails and a stocked fishing pond, making it an idyllic escape from the hustle and bustle. Situated just steps from the renowned Arrington Vineyards and various shopping and dining venues, Pine Creek provides the perfect blend of rural charm and suburban convenience, all within the highly-regarded Williamson County School District. With home plans ranging from 2,800 to over 4,000 square feet, featuring up to 7 bedrooms and 6.5 bathrooms, Pine Creek is positioned to fulfill a range of homeowner expectations and dreams. The community's design philosophy underscores a commitment to creating spaces where families can thrive and create lasting memories. Pine Creek by Dream Finders Homes not only stands as a beacon of modern and luxurious living in Arrington, TN but also offers a welcoming community atmosphere, making it an ultimate choice for those seeking a new home in a picturesque setting.

18. 2024-05-09
    listed $780,990 Active 1390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1390 chars)

    New Homes for Sale in Arrington, TN As a distinguished destination for new home buyers in Arrington, TN, Pine Creek offers a compelling mix of contemporary living, marked by spacious interiors and luxurious amenities. Each home features main level owner's suites, gourmet kitchens, and expansive living areas, set on large, tree-lined homesites that enhance privacy and outdoor enjoyment. The community itself is integrated seamlessly into the natural surroundings, boasting scenic walking trails and a stocked fishing pond, making it an idyllic escape from the hustle and bustle. Situated just steps from the renowned Arrington Vineyards and various shopping and dining venues, Pine Creek provides the perfect blend of rural charm and suburban convenience, all within the highly-regarded Williamson County School District. With home plans ranging from 2,800 to over 4,000 square feet, featuring up to 7 bedrooms and 6.5 bathrooms, Pine Creek is positioned to fulfill a range of homeowner expectations and dreams. The community's design philosophy underscores a commitment to creating spaces where families can thrive and create lasting memories. Pine Creek by Dream Finders Homes not only stands as a beacon of modern and luxurious living in Arrington, TN but also offers a welcoming community atmosphere, making it an ultimate choice for those seeking a new home in a picturesque setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$54,202
• − Property taxes: −$14,514
• − Insurance: −$4,838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,240
• − Management: −$6,240
• − Depreciation: −$28,149
• Taxable loss: −$36,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,684
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamson County
• NCES district ID: 4704530
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $103,392
• Composite: 54.94/100
• National rank: #1307
• State rank: #1 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nolensville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #2317

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,409
• Population (ZIP): 3,633

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 275,925 people
• By 2030: 308,630 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 374,403 · +35.7%
• By 2050: 438,644 · +59.0%
• By 2075: 592,763 · +114.8%
• By 2100: 691,828 · +150.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 12% Slovak 1% English 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.0% · R 65.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+26.1 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.54%
• Current HPI: 498.4505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-16 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-10-16 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-06-21 Price Changed $790,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-01 Price Changed $785,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-09 Listed $780,990 Zillow