4406 W 16th Ave · Pine Bluff, AR 71603

$58,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1973 9,583 sqft lot $55/sqft · 11% below area Est $65k · 11% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-family home built in 1973, offering 1,056 square feet of living space on a 0.22-acre lot. The home has 3 bedroom and 1 bathroom, with brick exterior, gable roof, and slab foundation. Interior finishes include carpet and tile flooring, central heat and air conditioning. The lot measures 75x125 feet and includes a concrete driveway and paving. Property is being sold as is. Excellent Investment property.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 157 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($924 rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 9.0% in Pine Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Watson Chapel School District (urban): math 10% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #228 of 238 in AR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.80%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,463
• List price: $58,000
• Delta: -11.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4114 W 10th Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,090 (+3%)	11mo	$45,000	$41	64
3502 Lilac	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,073 (+2%)	8mo	$80,000	$75	57
1718 S Marsh	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+2%)	10mo	$30,000	$28	57
2304 Dianne Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,131 (+7%)	4mo	$147,200	$130	55
3506 W 12th Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	984 (-7%)	7mo	$25,000	$25	49
5012 Faucett	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,162 (+10%)	3mo	$114,900	$99	48
1320 S Oleander	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,164 (+10%)	24mo	$25,000	$21	45
3408 Iris St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,106 (+5%)	21mo	$32,000	$29	41
4408 W 5th Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	984 (-7%)	15mo	$79,999	$81	38
4108 W 6th Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,168 (+11%)	14mo	$21,500	$18	37
1714 S Marsh St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,174 (+11%)	23mo	$41,500	$35	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $14,550
• Equity at exit: $8,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $43,467
• Equity at exit: $5,015

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71603

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $924 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $306/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $448

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3109 Daffodil St Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.0	980	$825	$0.84	43d	1	0.95mi
4324 Union Ave Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	702	$650	$0.93	43d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $58,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $58,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $58,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $58,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $58,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $58,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $58,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $58,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $58,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $58,000 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $58,000 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $58,000 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $58,000 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $58,000 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $58,000 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-01-12
    listed $58,000 New Listing 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This single-family home built in 1973, offering 1,056 square feet of living space on a 0.22-acre lot. The home has 3 bedroom and 1 bathroom, with brick exterior, gable roof, and slab foundation. Interior finishes include carpet and tile flooring, central heat and air conditioning. The lot measures 75x125 feet and includes a concrete driveway and paving. Property is being sold as is. Excellent Investment property.

18. 2026-01-01
    historical
19. 2025-07-29
    listed $80,000 New Listing
20. 2025-07-22
    historical
21. 2025-06-28
    price $80,000
22. 2025-06-23
    listed $35,000 New Listing
23. 2024-12-20
    historical
24. 2024-10-12
    price $63,116
25. 2024-10-11
    price $65,116
26. 2024-08-08
    listed $65,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $306 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $371 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 21.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$306
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$887
• − Management: −$887
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $3,783
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$908
• After-tax cash flow: $3,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watson Chapel School District
• NCES district ID: 0513930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,521
• Composite: 9.55/100
• National rank: #9845
• State rank: #228 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pine Bluff

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #25645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Bluff, AR
• County: Jefferson County · 29,578 people
• City population: 29,578
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,578
• Household income: $53,130
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 33% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.43%
• Current HPI: 206.5994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Listed $58,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $80,000 CARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $80,000 CARMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $35,000 CARMLS
• 2024-12-20 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-10-12 Price Changed $63,116 CARMLS
• 2024-10-11 Price Changed $65,116 CARMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listed $65,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $306 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.