4171 Turner Rd · Crystal Beach, NY 14424

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1977 0.90 ac lot Est $160k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy Country Ranch, Beautiful Setting for this Well Maintained Ranch Style Modular Home Situated on a Mature One Acre Lot. Just Minutes to Canandaigua Area. Comfortable Living featuring a Nice Entry Area with Seating & Lots of Closet Storage , Dine In Kitchen, Living Room With Floor Model Propane Heater. Two Bedrooms & Full Bath. Full Basement w/ Heater and Laundry Hookups. One Car Detached Garage with Extra Storage, Electric and Opener.

Key facts

• Eat-in-kitchen
• Ranch style home
• Full basement

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• 1 ACRE LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• EAT-IN-KITCHEN
• FULL BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic sewer (septic tank); Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Aluminum, vinyl and wood siding; Copper plumbing; Block foundation; Existing (built previously)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Gravel driveway; Rural, rectangular/agricultural lot (approx. 0.9 acres, dimensions 209 x 184)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 0.3% in Crystal Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,146 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman) (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #519 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Middlesex Valley Elementary School (250 students, 71% FRL); Marcus Whitman Middle School (math 20% / reading 42%, grade F, #534 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 275 students, 58% FRL); Marcus Whitman High School (math 98% / reading 75%, grade A, #342 of 1,100 statewide, top 31%, 337 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 40% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 39% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $175k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.18%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4171 Turner Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (0%)	1mo	$160,000	$140	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,163
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $49,323
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14424

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,739/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,543

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $270	-5% $220	+0% $171	+5% $121	+10% $72
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $101	+0% $171	+5% $240	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $259	-0.5pp $215	base $171	+0.5pp $125	+1.0pp $79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2013-03-15
   soldstatus $94,900 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Cozy Country Ranch, Beautiful Setting for this Well Maintained Ranch Style Modular Home Situated on a Mature One Acre Lot. Just Minutes to Canandaigua Area. Comfortable Living featuring a Nice Entry Area with Seating & Lots of Closet Storage , Dine In Kitchen, Living Room With Floor Model Propane Heater. Two Bedrooms & Full Bath. Full Basement w/ Heater and Laundry Hookups. One Car Detached Garage with Extra Storage, Electric and Opener.

4. 2013-03-15
   soldstatus $94,900

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Cozy Country Ranch, Beautiful Setting for this Well Maintained Ranch Style Modular Home Situated on a Mature One Acre Lot. Just Minutes to Canandaigua Area. Comfortable Living featuring a Nice Entry Area with Seating & Lots of Closet Storage , Dine In Kitchen, Living Room With Floor Model Propane Heater. Two Bedrooms & Full Bath. Full Basement w/ Heater and Laundry Hookups. One Car Detached Garage with Extra Storage, Electric and Opener.

5. 2012-12-18
   listed $94,900 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Cozy Country Ranch, Beautiful Setting for this Well Maintained Ranch Style Modular Home Situated on a Mature One Acre Lot. Just Minutes to Canandaigua Area. Comfortable Living featuring a Nice Entry Area with Seating & Lots of Closet Storage , Dine In Kitchen, Living Room With Floor Model Propane Heater. Two Bedrooms & Full Bath. Full Basement w/ Heater and Laundry Hookups. One Car Detached Garage with Extra Storage, Electric and Opener.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,739 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,848 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: +$109/yr (+$9/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,739
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,689
• − Management: −$1,689
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$187
• After-tax cash flow: $2,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman)
• NCES district ID: 3612300
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,088
• Composite: 34.33/100
• National rank: #5233
• State rank: #519 of 590 in NY

Livability — Crystal Beach

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #23896

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• City population: 28,786
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 28,786
• Household income: $79,778
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 737.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.94%
• Current HPI: 263.755
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.46%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+84.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $175,000 UNYREIS
• 2013-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $94,900 Public Records
• 2013-03-15 Sold (MLS) $94,900 UNYREIS
• 2012-12-18 Listed $94,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,739 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.