6430 W 9 Mile Rd · Gonzalez, FL 32526

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,629 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1975 2.17 ac lot $184/sqft · at area comps Est $314k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sturdy home on more than two acres! With a metal roof (2019), all brick siding, new LVP floors throughout the house, new septic tank and drain lines (2017), and a transferable termite bond, this property has great bones and would be a perfect starter home or investment property. Enjoy ample room to spread out, with a large storage shed/workshop complete with electricity and a fully fenced back yard. Located on 9 Mile Rd close to the Navy Fed campus, enjoy proximity to the amenities & shopping of the 9 Mile corridor as well as easy access to I-10 *** Please verify all features, dimensions, etc that may be important to you

Key facts

• Brick siding
• Metal roof
• New lvp floors

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• BRICK SIDING
• NEW LVP FLOORS
• NEW SEPTIC TANK
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• FULLY FENCED BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-160/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beulah Elementary School (math 53% / reading 57%, grade C, #872 of 2,144 statewide, top 42%, 946 students, 57% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 421 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $300k implies a 809% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,183 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,905
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -4.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9824 Betula Rd	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,812 (+11%)	2mo	$425,000	$235	65
9528 Crimson Pointe Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (-1%)	6mo	$295,000	$182	57
9699 Angel Oak Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,486 (-9%)	2mo	$288,900	$194	56
9511 Crimson Pointe Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (-0%)	6mo	$312,000	$192	56
6654 Sun Tree Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,707 (+5%)	1mo	$309,000	$181	55
9544 Tower Ridge Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,748 (+7%)	5mo	$325,000	$186	54
9691 Angel Oak Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,486 (-9%)	7mo	$289,900	$195	51
9628 Sagewood Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,815 (+11%)	7mo	$339,900	$187	48
6510 Suwanee Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,823 (+12%)	1mo	$345,000	$189	48
9748 Millee Loop	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,830 (+12%)	5mo	$350,000	$191	45
9953 Suwanee Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,823 (+12%)	4mo	$320,000	$176	44
6879 Fort Deposit Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,860 (+14%)	9mo	$335,000	$180	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-45,968
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-26,354
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32526

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,442 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,930/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,459

Max offer price $297,644

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $72	+0% $-13	+5% $-98	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-206	-5% $-110	+0% $-13	+5% $83	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $63	base $-13	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9470 Lutoo Ln Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,300	$1.30	25d	1	0.17mi
7068 Whitetail Run Dr Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,300	$1.27	15d	1	0.58mi
9845 Beulah Rd Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.5	2016	$2,000	$0.99	15d	1	0.84mi
6297 Sonoma Ln Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.5	2033	$2,350	$1.16	15d	1	0.84mi
4041 Whitetail Ln Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,020	$1.13	25d	1	1.23mi
5251 W Nine Mile Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,494	$2.42	15d	45	1.40mi
10921 Blacktail Loop Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,350	$1.32	23d	1	1.45mi
5943 Ravines Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2080	$2,422	$1.16	15d	9	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $300,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $300,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-02-10
    listed $300,000 Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Sturdy home on more than two acres! With a metal roof (2019), all brick siding, new LVP floors throughout the house, new septic tank and drain lines (2017), and a transferable termite bond, this property has great bones and would be a perfect starter home or investment property. Enjoy ample room to spread out, with a large storage shed/workshop complete with electricity and a fully fenced back yard. Located on 9 Mile Rd close to the Navy Fed campus, enjoy proximity to the amenities & shopping of the 9 Mile corridor as well as easy access to I-10 *** Please verify all features, dimensions, etc that may be important to you

17. 1985-03-01
    soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,930 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,930 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,930
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,344
• − Management: −$2,344
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,348
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,284
• After-tax cash flow: $1,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,680
• Household income: $75,098
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 19% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.68%
• Current HPI: 252.6406
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+809.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $300,000 PARMLS
• 1985-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,930 · +16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.