12973 Pembroke Dr · Naples, FL 34105

$630,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition $370/mo HOA · 17% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Cash flow +1.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully maintained, move-in-ready residence showcases a desirable open-concept design accented by thoughtful upgrades that elevate both style and comfort. Sun-filled living spaces flow effortlessly to an extended lanai overlooking tranquil greenery, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor setting ideal for quiet mornings, casual gatherings, or evening relaxation. The home’s layout feels both modern and inviting, offering functionality without sacrificing warmth, and reflects pride of ownership throughout. Its prime location enhances everyday living, with an exceptional array of dining, shopping, fitness options, cafés, and a beloved weekend farmers market just steps away. P

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Quick access
• Extended lanai

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• EXTENDED LANAI
• TRANQUIL GREENERY
• PRIME LOCATION
• A-RATED SCHOOL DISTRICT
• QUICK ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a 60-unit complex with 2 units per building and 2 floors
• Financial info: Taxes listed (not financial advice)
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Master HOA fee $370 per month; Total annual recurring fees $4,440; HOA maintenance covers irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, security, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal, and water; Community pool and sidewalks; Managed by residents

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community; Community security included in HOA
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available; Electric service for heat and cooling: central electric
• Home design: Residential townhouse; 2-story; Rear exposure faces north; Part of Hamilton Place community
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Impact resistant windows and doors; Built in 2023; Foundation: (not specified)
• Exterior features: Patio; Screened lanai/porch; Landscaped area view; Zero lot line; No RV allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator/freezer; Refrigerator with icemaker; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cathedral ceiling; Closet cabinets; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Tray ceiling; Walk-in closet; Dining area (living); Family room; Guest bath; Guest room; Home office; Loft; Screened lanai/porch; Auto garage door; Dishwasher; Disposal; Dryer; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/freezer; Refrigerator/icemaker; Washer; Furnished negotiable; Vinyl flooring; Great room floor plan; Split bedrooms; 2-story layout; 5 ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $630k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (76.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (64.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (76.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Osceola Elementary School (math 78% / reading 74%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 621 students, 32% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 55% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 71% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 334 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($611k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,984 (76.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 76% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.49%
• DSCR: 0.22
• GRM: 23.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -55.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-280,135
• Equity at exit: $93,935

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.75×
• Total profit: $-485,406
• Equity at exit: $54,471

Cash invested: $176,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34105

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 23.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,304
• Tax from tax record: −$404 /mo · $4,843/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$370
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-2,723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,686

Max offer price $148,984

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,366	-5% $-2,545	+0% $-2,723	+5% $-2,901	+10% $-3,080
Rent	-10% $-2,900	-5% $-2,811	+0% $-2,723	+5% $-2,634	+10% $-2,546
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,406	-0.5pp $-2,563	base $-2,723	+0.5pp $-2,886	+1.0pp $-3,052

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,500
• Closing costs: $18,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3105 La Costa Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,235	$2.13	15d	20	0.39mi
1115 Reserve Ct Unit 2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	15d	1	0.47mi
1105 Reserve Ct #206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	15d	1	0.48mi
1235 Reserve Way #103 Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	894	$1,995	$2.23	15d	1	0.74mi
1235 Reserve Way Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	894	$2,300	$2.57	25d	1	0.74mi
1170 Reserve Way #205 Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	894	$1,700	$1.90	25d	1	0.74mi
1180 Reserve Way Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,990	$2.18	15d	3	0.76mi
1180 Reserve Way Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,000	$2.10	25d	2	0.76mi
1220 Reserve Way #305 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1059	$1,950	$1.84	25d	1	0.77mi
1190 Reserve Way #304 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1059	$2,900	$2.74	25d	1	0.80mi
5301 Summerwind Dr Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,864	$2.23	15d	12	0.92mi
1554 Oyster Catcher Pt Unit C Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1124	$2,900	$2.58	25d	1	1.39mi
1545 Oyster Catcher Pt Unit A Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1124	$2,200	$1.96	15d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $370 · $4,440/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $630,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $630,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $630,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $630,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $630,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $630,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $640,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $640,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $640,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $640,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $640,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $640,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $640,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $640,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $640,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    price $640,000
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $650,000 Active
18. 2026-03-25
    historical
19. 2026-03-06
    listed $700,000 Active
20. 2026-02-03
    historical
21. 2026-01-12
    listed $7,000
22. 2026-01-12
    historical $7,000
23. 2026-01-01
    listed $700,000 Active
24. 2025-10-25
    price $7,000
25. 2025-10-15
    price $7,400
26. 2025-10-14
    historical
27. 2025-10-08
    listed $7,500
28. 2025-09-25
    listed $700,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,843 · $404/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,229 · $436/mo
• Expected delta: +$386/yr (+$32/mo · 8.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,290
• − Property taxes: −$4,843
• − Insurance: −$4,974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,150
• − Management: −$2,150
• − HOA: −$4,440
• − Depreciation: −$18,327
• Taxable loss: −$45,303
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,873
• After-tax cash flow: $-21,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home features modern upgrades and a prime location, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space
• Both smart home integration — increases home's value and convenience
• Both smart thermostat — improves energy efficiency and comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both smart home integration — increases home's value and convenience ↑
• Both smart thermostat — improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #1903

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,441
• Household income: $92,214
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.65%
• Current HPI: 283.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $640,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $650,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $700,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed for Rent $7,000 FGCMLS
• 2026-01-12 Rental Removed $7,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $700,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $7,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $7,400 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed for Rent $7,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $700,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+72.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,843 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.