CAROLINA Plan · DeFuniak Springs, FL 32433

$194,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 937 sqft · SingleFamily · 261 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

2 bed | 2 bath | 937 sqft

Key facts

• Listed 261 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $194,990

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan named CAROLINA; Single-level residence (plan)
• Construction: 937 living area (square feet)
• Exterior features: Located on Watson Rd, Defuniak Springs, FL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Active listing (Plan: CAROLINA)

🏗️ New construction. The $194,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $169,597.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-244/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in DeFuniak Springs — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#694 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 423 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,786 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,597
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
534 Watson Rd	0.50mi	2/2.0	937 (0%)	2mo	$169,888	$181	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $91,094
• Equity at exit: $152,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $269,318
• Equity at exit: $329,490

Cash invested: $47,487 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32433

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$889
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,544/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $166,654

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $38	+0% $-20	+5% $-79	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-78	+0% $-20	+5% $37	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $23	base $-20	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,399
• Closing costs: $5,088
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
135 Tiger Lily Ln Defuniak Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,795	$1.61	15d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,990 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,990 Active 258 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,990 Active 257 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,990 Active 256 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,990 Active 255 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,990 Active 253 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,990 Active 252 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,990 Active 250 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,990 Active 249 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $194,990 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,990 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $194,990 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,990 Active 243 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,990 Active 242 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,990 Active 241 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,990 Active 240 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $194,990 Active 239 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,500
• − Property taxes: −$2,544
• − Insurance: −$848
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,400
• − Management: −$1,400
• − Depreciation: −$4,934
• Taxable loss: −$3,131
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$751
• After-tax cash flow: $507/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — DeFuniak Springs

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #694
• US rank: #14475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 19,746
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,746
• Household income: $52,199
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 356.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.77%
• Current HPI: 367.046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B