7621 Dakota Dr · Watauga, TX 76148

$298,800

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,869 sqft · Townhouse · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 1,651 sqft lot $160/sqft · 12% below area Est $338k · 12% under $275/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21196665 - Built by Ashton Woods Homes - Ready Now! ~ Welcome to the Tulane, a thoughtfully designed two-story townhome in Watauga, TX. Designed with the Timeless Collection, this home features crisp whites and soft neutrals. Nine-foot ceilings enhance the openness, while a welcoming foyer, additional storage, and a two-car garage add practical convenience. The first floor is the heart of everyday living, featuring a bright, open-concept layout with a modern kitchen centered around a spacious island, shaker-style cabinetry, tile backsplash, and ample countertop space. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and family areas, creating an inviting environment perfect for hosting or daily routines. Upstairs, two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, offering an ideal setup for family, guests, or a dedicated workspace. A versatile loft provides even more flexibility, whether as a media nook, play area, or home office. The private primary suite completes the second floor with a generous walk-in closet, double sink vanity, and a glass-enclosed walk-in shower. With its thoughtful use of space, elevated finishes, and flexible living areas, the Tulane delivers the modern comfort and refined style that define Ashton Woods living.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Modern kitchen
• Tile backsplash

Tags

• TWO STORY TOWNHOME
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETRY
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-443 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#105 in TX, #3,500 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Keller ISD (urban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,700 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.35%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,102
• List price: $298,800
• Delta: -11.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7621 Dakota Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,869 (0%)	1mo	$298,800	$160	99
7625 Dakota Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,869 (0%)	1mo	$298,200	$160	99
7617 Dakota Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,050 (+10%)	1mo	$310,200	$151	83
5712 Lakeview Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,050 (+10%)	1mo	$319,600	$156	74
5700 Lakeview Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,050 (+10%)	1mo	$313,500	$153	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-73,147
• Equity at exit: $44,552

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-85,356
• Equity at exit: $25,835

Cash invested: $83,664 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76148

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,567
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,482/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,962

Max offer price $234,700

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-236	-5% $-340	+0% $-443	+5% $-546	+10% $-649
Rent	-10% $-633	-5% $-538	+0% $-443	+5% $-348	+10% $-253
Rate	-1.0pp $-293	-0.5pp $-367	base $-443	+0.5pp $-520	+1.0pp $-599

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,700
• Closing costs: $8,964
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7621 Dakota Dr Watauga, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,500	$1.34	8d	1	0.03mi
7625 Dakota Dr Watauga, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,500	$1.34	12d	1	0.03mi
7733 Liz Ln Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,975	$1.35	25d	1	0.29mi
7504 Bear Lake Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1723	$2,595	$1.51	25d	1	0.47mi
5621 Starwood Ct Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2459	$2,700	$1.10	44d	1	0.56mi
7529 Walnuthill Ct Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,150	$1.58	44d	1	0.56mi
7400 Echo Hill Dr Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,950	$1.43	5d	1	0.58mi
7320 Echo Hill Dr Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,890	$1.47	44d	1	0.58mi
6355 Starnes Rd Watauga, TX	3.0	2.5	1956	$2,600	$1.33	22d	1	0.59mi
6329 North Park Dr Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,195	$1.35	44d	1	0.60mi
7529 Meadowlark Ln N Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1342	$2,150	$1.60	44d	1	0.63mi
7608 Meadowlark Ln N Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,925	$1.40	22d	1	0.66mi
6024 Herschel Dr Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,950	$1.38	15d	1	0.71mi
6024 Herschel Dr Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,950	$1.38	22d	1	0.71mi
6437 Starnes Rd Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,980	$1.53	44d	1	0.72mi
6421 Alta Vista Dr Watauga, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,165	$1.36	44d	1	0.72mi
5528 Milford Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1967	$2,550	$1.30	7d	1	0.75mi
7221 Lindentree Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,100	$1.25	44d	1	0.76mi
7221 Lindentree Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,100	$1.25	22d	1	0.76mi
5813 Blackmon Ct Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1725	$2,200	$1.28	18d	1	0.76mi
6017 Hillcrest Dr Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,950	$1.48	8d	1	0.76mi
5721 Blackmon Ct Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1503	$2,095	$1.39	44d	1	0.77mi
5832 Swords Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,895	$1.46	44d	1	0.78mi
5744 Swords Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,995	$1.49	44d	1	0.79mi
5809 Swords Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,095	$1.54	44d	1	0.81mi
5801 Swords Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,095	$1.54	44d	1	0.82mi
6400 High Lawn Ter Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,155	$1.51	44d	1	0.82mi
5968 Bursey Rd Watauga, TX	3.0	2.5	2261	$2,950	$1.30	44d	1	0.86mi
7501 Point Reyes Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1891	$2,400	$1.27	2d	1	0.86mi
7721 Arcadia Trl Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2427	$2,975	$1.23	8d	1	0.87mi
6000 Bursey Rd Unit 1521925P Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$4,833	$2.99	0d	1	0.87mi
6444 Whitehurst Dr Watauga, TX	3.0	3.0	1610	$2,450	$1.52	44d	1	0.89mi
5220 Fort Concho Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2428	$2,550	$1.05	4d	1	0.89mi
6529 Blue Grass Dr Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,150	$1.59	25d	1	0.91mi
7154 Tularosa Ct Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2371	$2,450	$1.03	3d	1	0.94mi
7154 Tularosa Ct Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2371	$2,450	$1.03	44d	1	0.94mi
6116 Bursey Rd Watauga, TX	3.0	3.0	1613	$2,750	$1.70	44d	1	0.96mi
6132 Bursey Rd Watauga, TX	3.0	2.5	1609	$2,650	$1.65	19d	1	0.97mi
7404 Catlow Ct Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	2300	$2,800	$1.22	16d	1	1.00mi
8221 Mark Ln Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,900	$2.06	25d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $275 · $3,300/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 1258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1258 chars)

   MLS# 21196665 - Built by Ashton Woods Homes - Ready Now! ~ Welcome to the Tulane, a thoughtfully designed two-story townhome in Watauga, TX. Designed with the Timeless Collection, this home features crisp whites and soft neutrals. Nine-foot ceilings enhance the openness, while a welcoming foyer, additional storage, and a two-car garage add practical convenience. The first floor is the heart of everyday living, featuring a bright, open-concept layout with a modern kitchen centered around a spacious island, shaker-style cabinetry, tile backsplash, and ample countertop space. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and family areas, creating an inviting environment perfect for hosting or daily routines. Upstairs, two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, offering an ideal setup for family, guests, or a dedicated workspace. A versatile loft provides even more flexibility, whether as a media nook, play area, or home office. The private primary suite completes the second floor with a generous walk-in closet, double sink vanity, and a glass-enclosed walk-in shower. With its thoughtful use of space, elevated finishes, and flexible living areas, the Tulane delivers the modern comfort and refined style that define Ashton Woods living.

2. 2026-04-21
   price $298,800 1258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1258 chars)

   MLS# 21196665 - Built by Ashton Woods Homes - Ready Now! ~ Welcome to the Tulane, a thoughtfully designed two-story townhome in Watauga, TX. Designed with the Timeless Collection, this home features crisp whites and soft neutrals. Nine-foot ceilings enhance the openness, while a welcoming foyer, additional storage, and a two-car garage add practical convenience. The first floor is the heart of everyday living, featuring a bright, open-concept layout with a modern kitchen centered around a spacious island, shaker-style cabinetry, tile backsplash, and ample countertop space. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and family areas, creating an inviting environment perfect for hosting or daily routines. Upstairs, two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, offering an ideal setup for family, guests, or a dedicated workspace. A versatile loft provides even more flexibility, whether as a media nook, play area, or home office. The private primary suite completes the second floor with a generous walk-in closet, double sink vanity, and a glass-enclosed walk-in shower. With its thoughtful use of space, elevated finishes, and flexible living areas, the Tulane delivers the modern comfort and refined style that define Ashton Woods living.

3. 2026-03-03
   listed $368,000 Active 1258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1258 chars)

   MLS# 21196665 - Built by Ashton Woods Homes - Ready Now! ~ Welcome to the Tulane, a thoughtfully designed two-story townhome in Watauga, TX. Designed with the Timeless Collection, this home features crisp whites and soft neutrals. Nine-foot ceilings enhance the openness, while a welcoming foyer, additional storage, and a two-car garage add practical convenience. The first floor is the heart of everyday living, featuring a bright, open-concept layout with a modern kitchen centered around a spacious island, shaker-style cabinetry, tile backsplash, and ample countertop space. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and family areas, creating an inviting environment perfect for hosting or daily routines. Upstairs, two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, offering an ideal setup for family, guests, or a dedicated workspace. A versatile loft provides even more flexibility, whether as a media nook, play area, or home office. The private primary suite completes the second floor with a generous walk-in closet, double sink vanity, and a glass-enclosed walk-in shower. With its thoughtful use of space, elevated finishes, and flexible living areas, the Tulane delivers the modern comfort and refined style that define Ashton Woods living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,737
• − Property taxes: −$4,482
• − Insurance: −$1,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$8,692
• Taxable loss: −$10,502
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,520
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It is ready for move-in and can be further enhanced with minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825260
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $92,106
• Composite: 48.46/100
• National rank: #2131
• State rank: #91 of 826 in TX

Livability — Watauga

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #3500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watauga, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 23,367
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,367
• Household income: $89,840
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 373.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.11%
• Current HPI: 310.2504
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.34%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $298,800 NTREIS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $368,000 NTREIS