14830 El Camino Real Rd · Clearlake, CA 95422

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Land · 137 Days on market

Built 1974 0.29 ac lot $111/sqft · 18% below area Est $196k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Must see this rare find! 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home on a 12,632 sq ft lot, being sold together with two adjacent lots (14840 and 14850 Res Lots) adds another 12,632 sq ft (totaling 25,264 sq ft). Utilities connected, with public sewer, water, and electric already on-site. The Mobile home needs work (perfect for investors or contractors). The three lots total provide endless options for building or subdividing.

Key facts

• Public sewer
• Three lots
• Building options

Tags

• PUBLIC SEWER
• PUBLIC WATER
• ELECTRIC ON-SITE
• THREE LOTS
• BUILDING OPTIONS
• SUBDIVIDING OPTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.8% in Clearlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#549 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.22%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,057
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -18.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,679
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $29,613
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95422

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $857/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,237

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14531 Emory Ave Clearlake, CA	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	21d	1	0.54mi
14087 Lakeshore Dr Clearlake, CA	3.0	3.0	1815	$2,500	$1.38	43d	1	0.77mi
14083 Lakeshore Dr Clearlake, CA	2.0	2.0	1076	$1,450	$1.35	21d	1	0.80mi
5935 Old Highway 53 Spc 32 MH (Park Owned) Clearlake, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	21d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 117 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $857 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$359/yr (+$30/mo · 42.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$857
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $2,062
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$495
• After-tax cash flow: $4,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clearlake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #18284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,101

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.47%
• Current HPI: 248.654
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $857 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.