5222 Loki Ln · Stockton, CA 95219

$480,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,029 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2006 3,986 sqft lot $237/sqft · 13% below area Est $549k · 13% under $180/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to comfortable living in the highly desirable Spanos Park West community of Stockton. This move in ready 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home offers the perfect blend of space, convenience, and privacy in a gated neighborhood designed for easy everyday living. Inside, you'll find separate formal living and dining rooms ideal for entertaining, along with an inviting family room that opens to the kitchen and features a cozy gas fireplace, the perfect place to gather and unwind. Thoughtful design and natural light create a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout the home. Step outside and enjoy the quiet surroundings, with a gated neighborhood park located directly across the street, offering

Key facts

• Gated neighborhood
• Corner location
• Short walk to target

Tags

• GATED NEIGHBORHOOD
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• CORNER LOCATION
• SHORT WALK TO TARGET
• SHORT WALK TO STARBUCKS
• SHORT WALK TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Monthly HOA fee; Community amenities include pool, clubhouse, park and additional shared areas

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage faces the side
• Security: Located in a gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; No irrigation system
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Built in 2006; 2-story
• Construction: Tile roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Corner lot in a gated community; Front and back landscaping designed for low maintenance; Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry closet; Kitchen island; Kitchen open to family room (kitchen/family combo)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with shower stall, tub, walk-in closet and window; Double sinks; tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living room; Gas-log fireplace; Pet-friendly (cats and dogs allowed)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside room on upper floor with cabinets; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-993 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (36.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (39.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (39.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manlio Silva Elementary (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D-, #485 of 1,571 statewide, top 31%, 757 students, 59% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 632 students, 58% FRL); Bear Creek High (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,937 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($466k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $292,419 (39.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.86%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $548,631
• List price: $480,000
• Delta: -12.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5222 Loki Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,029 (0%)	2mo	$440,000	$217	99
10528 Almanor Cir	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,140 (+6%)	1mo	$535,000	$250	66
5849 Silveroak Cir	0.46mi	3/3.0	2,149 (+6%)	2mo	$500,000	$233	64
10599 Rubicon Ave	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,140 (+6%)	8mo	$510,000	$238	58
5969 Silveroak	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,149 (+6%)	5mo	$515,000	$240	56
10552 Clarks Fork Cir	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,140 (+6%)	9mo	$535,000	$250	55
10009 Copco Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,213 (+9%)	4mo	$535,000	$242	53
5759 Westchester Cir	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,742 (-14%)	2mo	$502,500	$288	48
5354 Navarro Pl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,826 (-10%)	7mo	$505,000	$277	46
10526 Seahorn Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,143 (+6%)	12mo	$510,000	$238	44
5306 Navarro Pl	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,252 (+11%)	5mo	$557,500	$248	40
10844 Lakemore Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,772 (-13%)	8mo	$502,500	$284	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $201,690
• Equity at exit: $432,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $651,074
• Equity at exit: $932,534

Cash invested: $134,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax from tax record: −$406 /mo · $4,866/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $-993

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,181

Max offer price $304,657

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-721	-5% $-857	+0% $-993	+5% $-1,128	+10% $-1,264
Rent	-10% $-1,224	-5% $-1,108	+0% $-993	+5% $-877	+10% $-762
Rate	-1.0pp $-751	-0.5pp $-870	base $-993	+0.5pp $-1,117	+1.0pp $-1,243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,000
• Closing costs: $14,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10210 Copco Ln Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	2252	$3,100	$1.38	45d	1	0.47mi
6831 Oakum Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2318	$3,100	$1.34	45d	1	1.03mi
7017 Overlook Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2403	$3,095	$1.29	45d	1	1.33mi
10962 Admiral Cove Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2403	$3,200	$1.33	16d	1	1.43mi
9521 Twin Brooks Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,750	$1.80	45d	1	1.46mi
9521 Twin Brooks Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,900	$1.89	5d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: gassecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $480,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $480,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $480,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $480,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $480,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $480,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $480,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $480,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $480,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $480,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $480,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $480,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $480,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $480,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $480,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    soldstatus $441,000
17. 2013-09-13
    soldstatus $250,000
18. 2010-12-31
    soldstatus $173,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,866 · $406/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,866 · $406/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,887
• − Property taxes: −$4,866
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,807
• − Management: −$2,807
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$13,964
• Taxable loss: −$20,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,992
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+154.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $441,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2010-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $173,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,866 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.