23505 Flickering Sky Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$247,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $133/sqft · at area comps Est $257k · at est. $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottage II is a collection of new homes for sale at Elm Creek, a masterplan community in the charming city of Elgin, TX. The community offers affordable homes and access to a state-of-the-art community center. There are tons of local shops and restaurants nearby, plus Austin is only 40 minutes away for more entertainment options.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Versatile loft
• 4,791 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• LUXURIOUS OWNERS SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has homeowners association (Elm Creek); HOA fee approximately $55 monthly (covers common area maintenance); Community playground and park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story home; New construction; Faces northeast
• Construction: Built by Lennar; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; No exterior steps; Back yard; Front yard; Interior lot; Privacy wood fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Open floorplan; Main-level primary bedroom; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-571/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $217,880 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,740
• List price: $247,999
• Delta: -3.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13413 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,867 (0%)	1mo	$266,999	$143	97
13317 Winton Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	1,913 (+2%)	0mo	$286,999	$150	88
13320 Winton Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+2%)	1mo	$268,000	$141	88
13313 Winton Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+2%)	1mo	$290,000	$152	87
13401 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,954 (+5%)	2mo	$257,990	$132	86
13301 Winton Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+2%)	2mo	$277,000	$145	85
23409 Firelight Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	1,954 (+5%)	2mo	$261,990	$134	82
23813 Glowing Embers Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+1%)	1mo	$258,999	$137	80
13333 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	2mo	$244,991	$153	71
23616 Tiny Moons Way	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	2mo	$252,990	$158	66
23821 Glowing Embers Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-11%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	66
23829 Glowing Embers Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-11%)	2mo	$249,990	$150	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $132,364
• Equity at exit: $223,417

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $392,846
• Equity at exit: $481,808

Cash invested: $69,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,179 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,301
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$310 /mo · $3,720/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,239

Max offer price $241,109

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $38	+0% $-48	+5% $-133	+10% $-219
Rent	-10% $-220	-5% $-134	+0% $-48	+5% $38	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $15	base $-48	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,000
• Closing costs: $7,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	21d	1	0.16mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	22d	1	0.26mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	18d	1	0.26mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	44d	1	0.36mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	17d	1	0.60mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	44d	1	0.62mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	17d	1	0.70mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	24d	1	0.70mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	2d	1	0.75mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	0.76mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	44d	1	0.77mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	0.86mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	5d	1	0.87mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	18d	1	0.93mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	24d	1	0.99mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	5d	1	0.99mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	20d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $247,999 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,999 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,999 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,999 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,999 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $247,999 Active 26 DOM

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Cottage II is a collection of new homes for sale at Elm Creek, a masterplan community in the charming city of Elgin, TX. The community offers affordable homes and access to a state-of-the-art community center. There are tons of local shops and restaurants nearby, plus Austin is only 40 minutes away for more entertainment options.

7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $248,999 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $248,999 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $248,999 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $248,999 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $248,999 Active 19 DOM

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Cottage II is a collection of new homes for sale at Elm Creek, a masterplan community in the charming city of Elgin, TX. The community offers affordable homes and access to a state-of-the-art community center. There are tons of local shops and restaurants nearby, plus Austin is only 40 minutes away for more entertainment options.

12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $268,999 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $268,999 Active 17 DOM

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Cottage II is a collection of new homes for sale at Elm Creek, a masterplan community in the charming city of Elgin, TX. The community offers affordable homes and access to a state-of-the-art community center. There are tons of local shops and restaurants nearby, plus Austin is only 40 minutes away for more entertainment options.

14. 2026-05-14
    listed $270,999 Active 590-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,892
• − Property taxes: −$3,720
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$7,215
• Taxable loss: −$4,764
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,143
• After-tax cash flow: $572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern design, with new exterior siding, roof, interior walls, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms, and landscaping. It is move-in ready and ready for a new owner or tenant.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Interior and exterior paint touch-ups — Maintains the home's fresh and modern look, appealing to both buyers and renters.
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances convenience and can be a selling point for buyers and renters.
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Reduces energy costs and can be a selling point for buyers and renters.
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and can be a selling point for buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior and exterior paint touch-ups — Maintains the home's fresh and modern look, appealing to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances convenience and can be a selling point for buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Reduces energy costs and can be a selling point for buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and can be a selling point for buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $247,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $247,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $248,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $248,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-31 Listed $268,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $268,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $270,999 Unlock MLS