40 Cushman Rd · Lake Carmel, NY 12563

$750,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 2025 3.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New custom built colonial inspired smart home in Patterson NY. Constructed with the highest quality materials by trusted local contractors. A modern, energy efficient, zero emissions home. Located in an extraordinarily desirable location of town. Surrounded by pristine nature and quaint equine properties. Nestled along a quiet historic road, this neighborhood has a country atmosphere in a friendly community that's great for families. Large yard with a generous outdoor deck, perfect for enjoying our famous Hudson valley sunsets.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Large outdoor deck
• 3.3 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CUSTOM BUILT OAK STAIRCASE
• POLISHED CONCRETE FLOORS
• LARGE OUTDOOR DECK
• EXPANSIVE PRIVATE YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 3-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction; Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Foam insulation; Energy Star compliant
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Foam insulation; Energy Star construction features; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Open kitchen; Pantry; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two levels (total rooms: 8)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating with heat pump; ENERGY STAR qualified heating equipment; Central air conditioning; ENERGY STAR qualified cooling equipment; Zoned climate control
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Open floorplan with open kitchen; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Recessed lighting; Smart thermostat; Soaking tub; Walk-through kitchen; Walk-in closets; Washer/dryer hookup; Attic with pull-down stairs; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $750,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $692,930.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $750k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $750k).
• Recommended offer: $728k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.3% in Lake Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#650 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Carmel Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Matthew Paterson Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 488 students, 41% FRL); George Fischer Middle School (math 21% / reading 56%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,130 students, 38% FRL); Carmel High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,365 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($728k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $300k; list at $750k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $727,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.13%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $692,930
• List price: $750,000
• Delta: 8.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
281 Mcmanus Rd N	0.49mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,288 (-8%)	9mo	$590,000	$258	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-7,865
• Equity at exit: $103,318

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $127,761
• Equity at exit: $59,912

Cash invested: $194,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12563

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,634
• Tax from tax record: −$759 /mo · $9,106/yr
• Insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,680
• Net cashflow: $1,639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,926

Max offer price $692,930

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,031	-5% $1,835	+0% $1,639	+5% $1,442	+10% $1,246
Rent	-10% $1,007	-5% $1,323	+0% $1,639	+5% $1,955	+10% $2,271
Rate	-1.0pp $1,988	-0.5pp $1,815	base $1,639	+0.5pp $1,459	+1.0pp $1,276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $173,232
• Closing costs: $20,788
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 Cushman Rd Patterson, NY	3.0	2.0	2286	$8,000	$3.50	13d	1	0.28mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $750,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $750,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $750,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $750,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $750,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $750,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $750,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $750,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $750,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $750,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $750,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $750,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $750,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $750,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $750,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $850,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $850,000 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $850,000 Active 1425-char remark
19. 2026-04-21
    historical
20. 2026-02-11
    price $899,000
21. 2025-11-10
    price $990,000
22. 2025-10-30
    listed $1,200,000 Active
23. 2025-10-28
    listed $1,200,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    New custom built colonial inspired smart home in Patterson NY. Constructed with the highest quality materials by trusted local contractors. A modern, energy efficient, zero emissions home. Located in an extraordinarily desirable location of town. Surrounded by pristine nature and quaint equine properties. Nestled along a quiet historic road, this neighborhood has a country atmosphere in a friendly community that's great for families. Large yard with a generous outdoor deck, perfect for enjoying our famous Hudson valley sunsets.

24. 2024-06-04
    soldstatus $300,000
25. 2024-06-04
    soldstatus $155,000
26. 2024-05-02
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed
27. 2023-11-18
    status Pending
28. 2023-02-28
    price $189,000
29. 2023-01-02
    listed $239,000 Active
30. 2019-03-01
    historical
31. 2018-09-30
    listed $149,000 Active
32. 2018-06-29
    historical
33. 2018-02-24
    price $149,000
34. 2018-01-11
    price $139,000
35. 2017-11-06
    price $109,000
36. 2017-06-28
    listed $119,500 Active
37. 2017-05-11
    historical
38. 2016-11-10
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,106 · $759/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,891 · $908/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,784/yr (+$149/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $96,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,815
• − Property taxes: −$9,106
• − Insurance: −$3,465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,680
• − Management: −$7,680
• − Depreciation: −$20,158
• Taxable income: $9,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,183
• After-tax cash flow: $17,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606570
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $87,665
• Composite: 50.05/100
• National rank: #1914
• State rank: #258 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Carmel

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #650
• US rank: #12139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,456

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.07%
• Current HPI: 247.1582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+481.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $990,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Listed $1,200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Listed $1,200,000 Fizber.com
• 2024-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-02 Sold (MLS) $155,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-28 Price Changed $189,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-02 Listed $239,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-30 Listed $149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-24 Price Changed $149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-11 Price Changed $139,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-06 Price Changed $109,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-28 Listed $119,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-10 Listed $129,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,106 · +455.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.